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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Switz who wrote (4264)	1/18/1999 3:55:00 PM
From: Starowl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5944

Jim: Adaptec fooled analysts last January, April, and July, not to mention a couple of weeks ago. I would just as soon it fooled them again by besting even your 22 cents/share. If competitors' earnings are surprisingly good, analysts may actually upgrade before Adaptec announces. Judging by the sideways drift and good volume over the last 10 days, I think there has been some institutional accumulation. I notice that Adaptec has actually scheduled its earnings release dates for the rest of the year on the web page and even has a time and date for the annual shareholders meeting. That's a nice change. Here's a link to an anemic article on "SCSI lives" while Fibre Channel lurks in the background. techweb.com I checked out MicroNet's web page and don't really see it as much of a competitor yet. QLogic, which has done astoundingly well (as you have pointed out), got only about 14 percent of its earnings revenue from Fibre Channel last quarter (2Q 99). I wonder what Adaptec's long-range I/O plans are. The current focus on SCSI, RAID, and software will be successful in building profits once again and in restoring its good reputation with investors. But what about long-range? I remember Boucher's comments after last earnings that Adaptec is "not walking away from Fibre Channel" but that he does not expect to see FC ramp as much as prognosticated. He also said Adaptec "may use some of the FC technology in future products" and that if there is a demand for FC, Adaptec will do it. In fielding a question about QLogic's competition, he said "We're in an extremely competitive position and significantly ahead of LSI and QLogic in next generation" products. He wouldn't comment on any time-frame for FC products, when pressed, and said there were no schedules but that "we may have a product in 1999." Then he said he doesn't "believe investing in FC will make money." Now that's fancy footwork, if my notes of the conference call are accurate. Either he really hadn't given the subject much thought (unlikely) or he just wasn't going to tip his hand, or some other explanation. And here's another link: PTS deal completed as of 15 Jan. biz.yahoo.com This will be an interesting seven days, what with all the earnings reports scheduled. Starowl