To: Reseller who wrote (6890 ) 1/29/1999 9:10:00 AM From: HRP Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 10072
<<The statement about this quarter was cavalier in nature, almost disconcerting and because of that I have a suspicion that something's up, can't put my finger on it but watching very closely, how about sticking my neck out a little. >> Reseller, Here are a few thoughts as to what is up: A year ago IOM dropped from $13 to $8 overnight following a bad earnings report. Management cited as the primary cause the sudden unexpected increase in OEM inclusion of Zip drives to 50%. The new management responded by cutting expenses during the remainder of the year by $95,000,000 and a good earnings report followed for the seasonably best quarter. However, in the last conference call an even higher OEM inclusion percentage was reported. My take is that this also occurred more quickly than expected and that the company has materially revised downwards its internal projections of profit from 100MB Zip drive sales for Q1 and onwards. To offset this projected loss of revenue the company has decided to restructure (notwithstanding the loss of Briscoe who apparently didn't see this company when he bought 200,000 share of IOM a few months earlier) to further reduce cost and improve efficiency. Secondly, the number of OEMs for the Superdrive has increased from one to forty in the past year. To what extent will this increased exposure take future sales away form Iomega? Does the availability of the Superdrive negatively affect the price Iomega can charge for Zip drives to OEMs? Also, the substantial increase in Zip disk sales occurred after the price was reduced. Will this rate of sales continue or have the increased sales in Q4 been “borrowed” from future sales? I argue that these points introduce more uncertainty as to Iomega's future than many are contemplating. Clearly, there are many positive things that can be said about Iomega. Few appear to be willing to post the negative things when the reward is personal attacks instead of discussion of the issues. hrp