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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (20806)	1/30/1999 10:53:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev, I suspect that you're being somewhat harsh on CYMI's prospects. 1. The Chip and the Chip Equipment industries are on a long term growth trend with generally higher highs and higher lows for each cyclical peak and trough. (With the last trough being the notable exception.) 2. R&D: It's commitment to R&D has kept it a generation ahead of its nearest competitor for years. I see no reason for that advantage to disappear any time soon. 3. 300MM: I'm starting to get inklings of a 300mm pull in. The latest was in the PRIA conference call (1 719 457 0820 599671 for the replay). This will obsolete every currently existing leading edge fab once the rollout begins and generate a massive CAPEX investment program. So CYMI's: the BRAND NAME in lasers; with a base of growing customers; for which it has the monopoly; and the R&D to stay leading edge; with several imminent events to drive laser unit usage; and the strongest global laser support organization. While I wouldn't expect $100 / share this year, I would expect to see CYMI hit it long before WFR. ;-) (Though I believe you did revise that one down somewhat.) JMHO, Ian.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (20806)	1/31/1999 8:14:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev: Re: " Sure exuberance could even bring this stock to $60." As this latest market run in certain has taught us, exuberance can't be predicted. If there are enough "light bulb" people around who decide to short again, this well could provide the fuel for a huge silly run. Let's see ... you can't have the internet without Cymer. Yes, that's the ticket and off to the moon we go. And the CYMI board will then again attract hundreds of posts per day as it did in 1997 in a non-stop advertisement of CYMI's great prospects. Clueless investors will show up and read all this fine advertisement copy and join the party on the long side. Carlton Lutts will issue a buy on the stock. Fleck goes short and adds fuel to the fire. Day traders will find a new home. Oh, we could only hope. And then we can do a cross selling pitch for WFR. Let's see ... without WFR, there would be no CYMI and no internet. There you go to $100 as well with WFR. And we are all fat and happy. I love this game. Short term, I see the key to CYMI at this point is to have a positive cc regardless of results that puts the stock firmly above $30. Of course, the overall market must remain glued together for this to happen. NASDAQ at new highs currently. Probabilities suggest an overall market correction shortly.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (20806)	1/31/1999 8:32:00 AM
From: TechHunter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev- RMBS vs.Cymer Please explain why RMBS would trade as high as $110 (109 7/8) Based on; 1. $.32 Expected earning for 1999 2. $1.07 expected earnings for 2000 3. 43% sequential growth year to year. Given, with RMBS recent announcement of flat EPS of .08 for next 2/3 quarters have shot them to 75 (and I think will bring them to 60) But my point is, they got the coverage, the exposure which brought them from the 30's to the 100+ per share level in less then 6 months. they are viewed as a monopoly. I don't believe the numbers above justify a $110 per share level, but if they had come out with 40-50% sequential growth this last Q, I believe they would have gone higher. IF Cymer show a small loss or even a breakeven after what is projected for this Q, and the CC is extremely positive, IF words like 40-50% sequential growth are used (which I believe COULD happen) IF Merrill or another MM raises estimates for 2000 to 1.50 from current levels This stock COULD take off like a rocket ship. I don't know about TA or semis too well, but I'd like to think I'm an expert on 'human nature'. Human Nature is the analyst who does not want to go into his Managing Directors office and explain why he missed this one. Human Nature is the reaction to (Hopefully, Someday) when WE get CNBC saying that So and so brokerage firm raises Cymer to Strong Buy based on their Monopoly of next Generation etc. Human Nature is when some bozo calls Intel Cymer etc 'internet' stocks which could happen as irresponsible as these people are. My point is momentum and publicity count as much if not more as TA in this 'wired-world' we live in. JMHO, Craig

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (20806)	1/31/1999 9:12:00 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 25960

Zeev, I just signed on after getting home from a hot date. I have put my girlfriend into 6000 shares of Cymer. Given the recent run up in Cymer, she was pretty happy. It translated into quite a night <VVBG>. Re: Sure exuberance could even bring this stock to $60 or so Ian, Bob, Curly, Clark, Justa, and Techhunter have done a far more articulate job than I am capable of in explaining why $100-200 per share is not out of the realm of possibilities over the next couple of years. Jay