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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (20823)	1/31/1999 1:06:00 PM
From: WTSherman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

If this capacity is reached, sales will be around $500.000.000, Zeev, are you taking into account the service, maintenance and parts revenue that a field population of 2500-4000 units(by 2003) represent, when you use the $500M revenue figure? I haven't run these figures in quite a while, but, I believe that three or four years from now the contribution in this area will be fairly substantial...

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (20823)	1/31/1999 4:39:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev, I think I understand the reasons for your estimate; and you may very well be right. One observation however. The forecasters have never been right. They've either been wildly optimistic or more pessimistic than the most suicidal depressive. I think that right now it's more likely that the forecasters are closest to being in the latter category. I could be wrong. ... and I'll bet that Katherine would call that a certainty. (that I'm wrong.) ;-) Best wishes, Ian.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (20823)	1/31/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: Curlton Latts	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

CYMI unit price is $875K now on new lasers. ASPs could easily hit $1 million by 2003. >>>"the company has already shipped some of the $875,000 units"<<< semibiznews.com Rowan was conservatively predicting $1.0 billion market over a month ago. I believe the number could be as high as $3.0 billion. ASPs at $500 are a self-delusion. Cymer's sales on units alone could easily hit $1.0 billion by 2001-2, that doesn't include huge service and support revenues. Semi-equip market caps trade at 4-5X sales - therefore 4-5X say $1.5 Billion equals $6-$7.5 Billion market cap divided by 30 million shares equals $200-$250 per share. Discount it to today and you get a $187 stock. Incidentally good growth companies trade higher than 4-5X sales, for example AMAT trades at 8.5X. Using AMAT as a valuation model and the same math brings you to a discounted share value today of over $300 per share. WOW!! I'll take it. Good Luck To Each And All Curly ~~~~~~~^^ [6.6] ......> [_]