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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (28049)	2/6/1999 9:36:00 AM
From: Henry Eichorszt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Signs Of A Recovery Lift Chip-Gear Firms' Hopes -IBD Feb/8/99

To: Gottfried who wrote (28049)	2/6/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, >>>Kurlak and company needed something - anything - to drive stock prices to more affordable levels. You've probably noticed that these sudden "concerns" are seldom about anything truly new.<<< I absolutely agree. Kurlak doesn't read, or if he does, heed stuff like this from the San Jose Mercury News this a.m. Feb. 6: Chip sales post 10.5% gain Global computer-chip sales rose 10.5 percent in the fourth quarter from those in the third quarter, buoyed by sales in Asia Pacific and Europe, the Semiconductor Industry Association said. The San Jose-based SIA said the results were better than earlier forecasts of only a slight increase, mostly because chip makers cut spending on new plants, reducing the supply of products and keeping prices stable. Strong PC demand also helped bolster results. Now if those tight ol' chipmakers start spending $$ on new plants again, our chip equip stocks should go even higher, right? Can someone pass the nosebleed medicine, please? <g> Actually, news out this week about Intel going ahead with 300 mm (Oregon plant, I think), and a story came out about IBM developing a chipset for Merced with up to 8 way CPUs, using copper interconnect in the chipset. So, 300 mm and copper looking more for real all the time. Back to Kurlak, he is notorious for doing very little research, shooting from the hip instead. His sour puss hasn't been seen in Silicon Valley, where it's at, kicking brick and mortar in a coon's age. Tony Editing: Looking back, the more complete version of the article about Q4 semi sales was posted by Ian last night. Well at least the short version gave me a lead-in to bash Kurlak.

To: Gottfried who wrote (28049)	2/11/1999 12:28:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Threaders, Find the following DW data for the last 4 weeks. Note that the Nyse, Otc, and all leading indicators are down. IMO, this indicates that there is the probability that the market will continue to move further south. Naturally, we do not know how much. The good side is that the SEMI-Equip according to my IBD R/S data appears to be holding up relatively well. This correction actually may be good for AMAT to hit its higher goals of $100+, IMO. Rember Tito senario, $63 to $100. Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." Paul SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent 1/19/99 1/26/99 2/2/99 2/9/99 10week 47.71 10week 42.48 10week 39.81 10week 33.26 LEADING INDICATOR #1 30week 46.45 30week 44.85 30week 43.33 30week 40.61 LEADING INDICATOR #4 bpaero 61.1 bpaero 57.8 bpaero 57.8 bpaero 55.6 bpasia 45.8 bpasia 44.7 bpasia 44.7 bpasia 40.4 bpauto 58.5 bpauto 55.7 bpauto 53.8 bpauto 52.8 bpbank 47.9 bpbank 49.5 bpbank 48.2 bpbank 45.4 bpbiom 60.7 bpbiom 60.4 bpbiom 58.8 bpbiom 50 bpbuil 51.5 bpbuil 53.3 bpbuil 52.7 bpbuil 49.1 bpbusi 56.9 bpbusi 54.9 bpbusi 53.7 bpbusi 48 bpchem 43.1 bpchem 33.9 bpchem 37 bpchem 36.1 bpcomp 60.2 bpcomp 57.2 bpcomp 53.7 bpcomp 44.6 bpdrug 61.4 bpdrug 58.6 bpdrug 61.3 bpdrug 60.3 bpelec 60.1 bpelec 57 bpelec 52.8 bpelec 46.9 bpeuro 75 bpeuro 75 bpeuro 75 bpeuro 71.4 bpeuti 71.1 bpeuti 69.9 bpeuti 63.1 bpeuti 57.1 bpfina 59.5 bpfina 57.1 bpfina 54 bpfina 47.6 bpfood 54.6 bpfood 51.9 bpfood 52.5 bpfood 50 bpfore 58.5 bpfore 54.7 bpfore 49.1 bpfore 52.8 bpgame 46 bpgame 46 bpgame 48 bpgame 46.9 bpguti 63.8 bpguti 63.8 bpguti 55.1 bpguti 49.3 bpheal 55.5 bpheal 52.7 bpheal 50.4 bpheal 45.7 bphous 58.6 bphous 54.1 bphous 53.2 bphous 49.1 bpinsu 55.6 bpinsu 50.6 bpinsu 45.7 bpinsu 44.1 bplati 34.5 bplati 35.1 bplati 40.4 bplati 42.1 bpleis 46.3 bpleis 46.7 bpleis 46.5 bpleis 46 bpmach 47.3 bpmach 45 bpmach 45.8 bpmach 45.6 bpmedi 65.8 bpmedi 65.8 bpmedi 63.2 bpmedi 54.8 bpmeta 31.1 bpmeta 26 bpmeta 26 bpmeta 36.5 bpnyse 54.4 bpnyse 52 bpnyse 50 bpnyse 45.1 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHG. bpoil 22.1 bpoil 20.7 bpoil 17.1 bpoil 17.1 bpoils 42.6 bpoils 36 bpoils 30.2 bpoils 31 bpopti 64.42 bpopti 59.82 bpopti 55.68 bpopti 47 LEADING INDICATOR #2 bpotc 62.6 bpotc 59.5 bpotc 56.8 bpotc 48.3 OVER-THE-COUNTER bpprec 33.9 bpprec 37.5 bpprec 37.5 bpprec 33.9 bpprot 65.9 bpprot 67.4 bpprot 62.8 bpprot 53.5 bpreal 41.3 bpreal 42.3 bpreal 41 bpreal 38.8 bprest 44.2 bprest 45.7 bprest 46.7 bprest 45.7 bpreta 59.9 bpreta 58.8 bpreta 54.9 bpreta 46.1 bpsavi 50 bpsavi 48.2 bpsavi 46.1 bpsavi 46.1 bpsemi 75.8 bpsemi 71 bpsemi 65 bpsemi 53 bpsoft 60.5 bpsoft 59.7 bpsoft 56.3 bpsoft 47.9 bpstee 41.5 bpstee 44.6 bpstee 44.6 bpstee 38.4 bptele 64.1 bptele 63.3 bptele 59.6 bptele 51.4 bptext 50.5 bptext 48.4 bptext 48.6 bptext 45.2 bptrans 53.3 bptrans 53.3 bptrans 51.1 bptrans 53.3 bpwall 63.2 bpwall 57.9 bpwall 57.9 bpwall 61.4 bpwast 29.3 bpwast 29.3 bpwast 29.7 bpwast 29.7 HiLo 65.5 HiLo 49.1 HiLo 46.3 HiLo 37.2 LEADING INDICATOR #3 Numerical Order below SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent 1/19/99 1/26/99 2/2/99 2/9/99 bpsemi 75.8 bpeuro 75 bpeuro 75 bpeuro 71.4 bpeuro 75 bpsemi 71 bpsemi 65 bpwall 61.4 bpeuti 71.1 bpeuti 69.9 bpmedi 63.2 bpdrug 60.3 bpprot 65.9 bpprot 67.4 bpeuti 63.1 bpeuti 57.1 bpmedi 65.8 bpmedi 65.8 bpprot 62.8 bpaero 55.6 HiLo 65.5 bpguti 63.8 bpdrug 61.3 bpmedi 54.8 bpopti 64.42 bptele 63.3 bptele 59.6 bpprot 53.5 bptele 64.1 bpbiom 60.4 bpbiom 58.8 bptrans 53.3 bpguti 63.8 bpopti 59.82 bpwall 57.9 bpsemi 53 bpwall 63.2 bpsoft 59.7 bpaero 57.8 bpfore 52.8 bpotc 62.6 bpotc 59.5 bpotc 56.8 bpauto 52.8 bpdrug 61.4 bpreta 58.8 bpsoft 56.3 bptele 51.4 bpaero 61.1 bpdrug 58.6 bpopti 55.68 bpfood 50 bpbiom 60.7 bpwall 57.9 bpguti 55.1 bpbiom 50 bpsoft 60.5 bpaero 57.8 bpreta 54.9 bpguti 49.3 bpcomp 60.2 bpcomp 57.2 bpfina 54 bphous 49.1 bpelec 60.1 bpfina 57.1 bpauto 53.8 bpbuil 49.1 bpreta 59.9 bpelec 57 bpbusi 53.7 bpotc 48.3 OVER-THE-COUNTER bpfina 59.5 bpauto 55.7 bpcomp 53.7 bpbusi 48 bphous 58.6 bpbusi 54.9 bphous 53.2 bpsoft 47.9 bpfore 58.5 bpfore 54.7 bpelec 52.8 bpfina 47.6 bpauto 58.5 bphous 54.1 bpbuil 52.7 bpopti 47 LEADING INDICATOR #2 bpbusi 56.9 bptrans 53.3 bpfood 52.5 bpgame 46.9 bpinsu 55.6 bpbuil 53.3 bptrans 51.1 bpelec 46.9 bpheal 55.5 bpheal 52.7 bpheal 50.4 bpsavi 46.1 bpfood 54.6 bpnyse 52 bpnyse 50 bpreta 46.1 bpnyse 54.4 bpfood 51.9 bpfore 49.1 bpleis 46 bptrans 53.3 bpinsu 50.6 bptext 48.6 bprest 45.7 bpbuil 51.5 bpbank 49.5 bpbank 48.2 bpheal 45.7 bptext 50.5 HiLo 49.1 bpgame 48 bpmach 45.6 bpsavi 50 bptext 48.4 bprest 46.7 bpbank 45.4 bpbank 47.9 bpsavi 48.2 bpleis 46.5 bptext 45.2 10week 47.71 bpleis 46.7 HiLo 46.3 bpnyse 45.1 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHG. bpmach 47.3 bpgame 46 bpsavi 46.1 bpcomp 44.6 30week 46.45 bprest 45.7 bpmach 45.8 bpinsu 44.1 bpleis 46.3 bpmach 45 bpinsu 45.7 bplati 42.1 bpgame 46 30week 44.85 bpasia 44.7 30week 40.61 LEADING INDICATOR #4 bpasia 45.8 bpasia 44.7 bpstee 44.6 bpasia 40.4 bprest 44.2 bpstee 44.6 30week 43.33 bpreal 38.8 bpchem 43.1 10week 42.48 bpreal 41 bpstee 38.4 bpoils 42.6 bpreal 42.3 bplati 40.4 HiLo 37.2 LEADING INDICATOR #3 bpstee 41.5 bpprec 37.5 10week 39.81 bpmeta 36.5 bpreal 41.3 bpoils 36 bpprec 37.5 bpchem 36.1 bplati 34.5 bplati 35.1 bpchem 37 bpprec 33.9 bpprec 33.9 bpchem 33.9 bpoils 30.2 10week 33.26 LEADING INDICATOR #1 bpmeta 31.1 bpwast 29.3 bpwast 29.7 bpoils 31 bpwast 29.3 bpmeta 26 bpmeta 26 bpwast 29.7 bpoil 22.1 bpoil 20.7 bpoil 17.1 bpoil 17.1