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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (5603)	2/7/1999 5:08:00 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Big week ahead.......DD US Week: Key events to watch, and why, Feb 8-12 Updated Fri Feb 5 18:43 ET By Bridge News New York--Feb 5--Here is an outline of major US events financial markets will watch Feb 8-12: MARKET FOCUS: With the markets less nervous about Brazil in the wake of the International Monetary Fund's trip this week and with global market turmoil fears eased some, the focus is turning back to the raging US economy and whether or not the Federal Reserve may adopt a tightening bias. Those worries are expected to continue haunting the bond and stock markets next week. If Thursday's US retail sales number comes in on the strong side, it will further fuel speculation that the Fed may begin leaning toward hiking rates to cool a booming economy. Bond prices are expected to stay under pressure as the government sells $35 billion of intermediate and long-term securities at the quarterly refunding and amid waning Brazil worries. US stocks are expected to benefit from signs of persistent US economic strength and a flourishing IPO market. Dollar strength is likely to continue at a moderate pace, supported by recent stronger-than-expected US data. Dollar/yen should continue climbing amid concerns about Japan's ongoing woes. Euro/dollar is likely to be stable to slightly bearish, considering Europe's current outlook. ECONOMY FOCUS: The key economic figure will be Thursday's retail sales report. Analysts are looking for a relatively weak gain of 0.1%, ex-autos, up 0.4%. A stronger than-expected number would fuel fears the economy isn't slowing as expected and raise new concerns about an eventual Fed tightening. The other key report this week is Tuesday's data on fourth- quarter productivity. Another strong productivity gain may help ease concerns about inflation. WASHINGTON FOCUS: The Senate impeachment trial is likely to conclude on Thursday or Friday, with every expectation that there are not enough votes to convict President Bill Clinton of the perjury and obstruction of justice charges brought against him by the House last December. However, sometime after the trial, the Senate might pass a strongly-worded censure resolution condemning Clinton's behavior in the Monica Lewinsky matter. On Thursday, Clinton is scheduled to hold a working lunch with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. FED FOCUS: Very little news on the Fed front this week. Greenspan is testifying to Congress Thursday, but he is due to discuss the banking laws. So unless he's asked about the economy, don't expect him to offer much guidance on monetary policy until his Feb 23 Humphrey-Hawkins appearance. St. Louis Fed President Poole speaks Friday, but on economic education. THE WEEK'S HIGHLIGHTS (Note: ET is 5 hours behind of GMT) ------------------------ Monday, Feb 8 -------------------------- Treasury announces results of its auction of $15.0 bln in 13-and 26- week bills; (Previous: 13-week average yield 4.400%, 26-week average 4.390%); results about 1330 ET (1830 GMT) ------------------------ Tuesday, Feb 9 ------------------------- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi/Schroder Wertheim weekly US chain store sales for week ended Feb 6 (week ended Jan 30: +1.0%); 0900 ET (1400 GMT) Q4 productivity and costs (preliminary); (Q3-revised: non-farm +2.3%, labor costs +1.7%); 1000 ET (1500 GMT) Dec Richmond Fed business conditions survey; 1000 ET (1500 GMT) Treasury auctions $15.0 bln in 5-year notes (Previous: accepted yield 4.340%); results about 1330 ET (1830 GMT) Redbook weekly survey of US retail sales (Previous: first 4 weeks of Jan +2.0% from Dec); 1340 CT (1940 GMT) American Petroleum Institute's weekly US oil statistics for week ended Jan 29; after 1600 ET (2100 GMT) ----------------------- Wednesday, Feb 10 ----------------------- Dec wholesale trade; (Nov: inventories +0.6%, sales +0.3%); 1000 ET (1500 GMT) Treasury auctions $10.0 bln in 10-year notes (Previous: average yield 4.825%); results about 1330 ET (1830 GMT) ABC/Money Magazine releases consumer confidence polls; 1830 ET (2330 GMT) ------------------------ Thursday, Feb 11 ----------------------- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies before the House Banking Committee on financial services reform; Time to be announced State unemployment claims for week ended Feb 6; (Week ended Jan 30: -9,000 to 292,000; Forecast: +9,000 to 301,000); 0830 ET (1330 GMT) Jan retail sales (Dec: +0.9%, ex-autos +0.4%; Forecast: +0.1%, ex-autos +0.4%); 0830 ET (1330 GMT) Treasury auctions $10.0 bln in 30-year bonds (Previous: average yield 5.300%); results about 1330 ET (1830 GMT) Treasury announces size of 13- & 26-week bills; 1430 ET (1930 GMT) Money supply statistics for week ended Feb 1; (week ended Jan 25: M1 -$400 mln, M2 -$1.6 bln, M3 -$8.5 bln); 1630 ET (2130 GMT) ------------------------ Friday, Feb 12 ------------------------- Dec business inventories (Nov: inventories +0.4%, sales +0.4%; Forecast: -0.3%); 0830 ET (1330 GMT) Jan Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank economic survey (Dec: adjusted index +3.2); 0900 ET (1400 GMT) Feb University of Michigan preliminary survey of consumer sentiment Jan: 103.9); 1000 ET (1500 GMT) US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin testifies on financial modernization before the House Banking Committee; 1000 ET (1500 GMT) Commercial/industrial loans for week ended Feb 3; 1615 ET (2115 GMT) Bond Market Association recommends early closing of markets for trading of US Government and Mortgage Securities, OTC Corporate Bonds and Money Market Instruments. - Send comments to Internet address news@bridge.com