Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FR1 who wrote (98617)	2/13/1999 4:02:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Thank you for the numbers. However, I did NOT imply, nor do I believe, that Dell is losing market share. On the contrary, they continue to GAIN market share because their growth rate is higher than their competitor's growth rate. All I said was that Dell's GROWTH rate is slowing down...

To: FR1 who wrote (98617)	2/13/1999 11:28:00 AM
From: Alan Hume	Respond to of 176387

Hi Franz, no doubt your figures are correct, but IMHO your assumptions are faulty. DELL is not suffering from loss of market share as much as a demise in the ASP and profit. Alan

To: FR1 who wrote (98617)	2/13/1999 1:35:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Franz, numbers are always appreciated, but your logic here is all screwed up: So if DELL does report the projected $5.4 billion, then their growth rate will have dropped to 44.5% from last year's 55%. In order for DELL to surprise and hold its own, they would have to report $5.8 billion (55% increase in sales). You are saying that they will not make the grade. Dell will report somewhere close to the $5.4 billion and show a dramatic drop in % growth from 55% down to 44.5% implying that they are losing market share in a big way. 1. The growth rate of the industry was somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 - 15% for the year. A company grower faster than that rate must, by mathematical certainty be gaining market share. 2. Nobody in his right mind could expect a company to grow at 3 - 4 times the industry growth rate indefinitely. It is a mathematical impossibility. Most analysts believe that Dell's 5 year growth rate is somewhere in the neighborhood of 30%. 3. Dell was not projected to do $5.8BB -- the Nile projections were $5,468.4 BB for the quarter (46.3% increase y/y). So to claim that Dell needed to exceed $5.8BB to surprise makes no sense if we assume anything over an expectation to be a surprise. TTFN, CTC