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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37517)	2/13/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Hey George, Your comment: "The major OSX trend does not turn on a dime, and a basing period may be needed before the next OSX bull can develop." What's this look like, mashed potatoes? osxstocks.com K

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37517)	2/13/1999 2:37:00 PM
From: Mike from La.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

George Absolutely, no overnight miracles. Just watching for changes in the trends. The gain in offshore rigs looks positive, but too early to tell if it's a trend or an aberration. I'm comfortable with a 2 year recovery period, I don't expect miracles. I'm always looking at the underlying conditions, then projecting them 6-12 months or longer. The combination of good natural gas prices, an aging rig fleet, sharply falling production as a result of depletion and e & p cuts, purchases for the SPR, Asian recovery, and reduced operating expenses are factors that, at some point will create a trend of stronger oil prices and all that goes with it. OPEC is still a key factor. This is the third bust I've gone through, the big 80's bust, the 93-94 falsestart/bust due to record low gas prices, and this. The thing about cycles is that they're, well, cyclical. I remember at the 1995 (or maybe 94, memory for details poor) energy conference in Houston the key note speaker said, "congradulate the person on each side of you, you've made it, we are going to survive." The two years before that looked like death. Everyone should own at least a 100 shares of ESV. Carl Thorne, the CEO is not only one of the most savvy in the business, he is also one of the most straight talking. In the bad times, his comments in the annual report would be along the lines of, "last year sucked (not literal), and next year will be worse." The best trend indicator will be when he says its turned the corner. Point is, we've been here before, and survived. Slider's early to the party idea is valid, but his short term hopes are too optimistic. good investing Mike from La.