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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (40223)2/15/1999 10:41:00 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Sarmad-- Japan's trade surplus can hardly 'surprise', and their 'official' interests rates are 100% irrelevant -- They have enormous savings (we don't) and they are moving them around in response to a set of problems which are 'urgent'. Since our last exchange there is a new 'rumor' -- that Japan is finally willing to recapitalize their banks with public money -- $1 trillion in bad loans need to be offset. Lets say they need to raise $200 billion in the open market -- a conservative estimate -- where will that come from? I feel relieved cause I have made some 'bear market' bets. Given the unfolding soap opera, I will stick with my original call -- the bucks are headed home to Japan and our markets are going to go down -- that is the trend. AMZN is toast. See article below.

Japan may need to issue new bonds to fund banks-FT
TOKYO, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Japan's Deposit Insurance Corporation (DIC) may need to raise money from the market to fund bank reforms being planned by the government, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

''I think the DIC will be forced to consider raising most of the funds from the market,'' the Financial Times quoted Financial Revitalisation Commission Chairman Hakuo Yanagisawa as saying on Monday.

The paper said that if the DIC issued bonds to raise the funds, they could be worth more than seven trillion yen, or $61 billion, in the 1998/99 fiscal year. It did not give a source for the information.

(Note: this article is ''in progress''; there will likely be an update soon.)

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (40223)2/15/1999 11:05:00 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
But Sarmad--the yen is falling sharply tonight, not rising <I will venture the opinion that the strength in the yen is a response to their trade surplus> and the term of the bonds is the least important part of the news -- the question is still how much of a liquidity crunch we will have as a result of the tug of war between the BOJ and the MOF, and there are some mixed messages.