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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (102632)	2/18/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

He's a trader, living for the moment, but DELL has changed. I was amazed by the run to 100s, I couldn't believe it was happening, I thought I was wrong, but I see that I wasn't, now DELL investors have to come to terms with the new DELL that has been presented to us. Can we take 10, 15, maybe 20% a year, or are we going to be spoiled by the DELL of past? Or how about this, no price appreciation at all, it will happen! That's what the market is doing now with DELL. Greg

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (102632)	2/18/1999 12:44:00 PM
From: Gabriel008	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

I've been sitting back since DELL's earnings report dissecting the Q4 report [comparing it to my Q4 numbers] and reading about DELL's outlook for Q1 and the remainder of fiscal 2000. In dissecting the Q4 report a number of issues popped up; 1- the 100k in missing units from Q4 will actually flow into Q1. The units were not lost - clients were not lost - and, therefore, market share was not lost. Q1 will be a very strong quarter in a traditionally soft part of the year. 2- DELL management recognizes they did not price aggressively enough in Q4. This cost them approximately $200 million in business. Given DELL's execution record you can expect this issue to be resolved in Q1 and for the rest of f2000. 3- ASPs fell to $2350 in Q4 [from $2400 in Q3] and margins to 22.4 [from 22.5% in Q3]. With DELL management adopting an even more aggressive pricing posture in Q1 we should expect these to fall to approximately $2300 and 22.2%. 4- DELL management indicates [and confirmed by E. 5fer of Compaq] that Y2K buying will increase this year. As a result, we may see more of the heavy large account buying in the 1st half of the year versus the back-end of the year. Certainly, the Data Storage issue remains a mystery [at least to me]. In estimating future unit volumes. revenues and earnings I will assume that this product category is somehow absorbed in the PC unit volume. I recontacted IDC. Although they reaffirmed that DELL's Q4 was expected to come in at 2.291 million units based on discussions with DELL management and their own research I personally believe that they DO NOT include January [or 3rd month sales] in DELL's quarter. Rather, their data is based on a calendar period [in Q4 this being Oct, Nov & Dec]. Q1 will be a good test for IDC. If they include January, February and March in their estimates their data should be at least 100,000 units shy of DELL's actual Q1 results. In a nutshell, I'm expecting DELL to have a great quarter. DELL's management, by their own admission, did not execute as well as they could have in Q4 with regards to pricing. In life, certain types of people learn from their mistakes and are motivated to perform even better. Expect this from the DELL team in f2000. regards, Gabriel