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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (6878)	2/22/1999 11:54:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Dennis, My problem is that no one saw this coming. Except Sew--he said there would be a rebound. My cycle guy saw it too, but not this magnitude. I think this thread has a bearish bias, which gets in the way. If TA cannot predict, then it is no better than psychoanalysis! Message 7925362 Message 7907868 Not everyone on this thread has been completely bearish. I think all you really have to go by is what the market gives you on a daily basis. With the intermediate term trend negative over the past couple of weeks, being cautious was warranted. However, during this whole seven week period the long term trend was never violated. I believe the magnitude that you pointed out is because this may not just be a rebound. Instead what we're seeing is a breakout. And breakouts should always come on this kind of strength. And although I agree that TA can be as frustrating as hell sometimes. I really do believe there were clues that said the market was going higher. A reversal on the VIX last week. A weekly reversal on the Dow. Prices getting to that "do or die" point on the charts, almost taking out their longer term trends. Rising utility prices. You almost had to have a rally like this to indicate decisively that this breakout should be taken seriously. Perhaps we're the ones that need psychoanalyis for attempting this on a daily basis. Good trading SO

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (6878)	2/23/1999 12:35:00 AM
From: danderso	Respond to of 99985

GZ too... Dave

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (6878)	2/23/1999 3:02:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

First, IMPORTANT Note, anyone who hit my site tonight, I had the wrong scharts up from an experimental folder. I wanted to post my charts with signals on them but grabbed my test folder instead of my regular one I use so ignore any buy or sell signals. The correct charts are now loaded there. Dennis, I saw this coming also but not this magnitude. I started getting buy signals around Wednesday last week but that is not to say there isn't risk here as I previously stated due to the timing of this run. With earnings warnings just around the corner, this may not last long and could just be a short squeeze then a chance for the winners to go short themselves before taking it down further. You are right in that this thread is more bearish than others but I think that is due to our paying more attention to things than other threads. Most threads stocks go up and they rah rah rah and talk about 2 day doubles that will happen if they have faith. Then when the stock goes down, they blame the MMs, the people that sold before they lost, what ever they can to rationalize it. Here we look at economic data, historical trends, market internals etc. Each person has their own time frames, risk levels etc. You monitor the threads and the market off and on during the day, Don and some of the others here can watch it all day. I see it at the end of the day and once in a blue moon I hear during market hours on the radio whre it is trading. Therefore my risk tolerance is lower than yours which is probably a little lower than Don's due to the fact that he can get out faster than you who can get out faster than me. Heck I was short when Greenspan cut the rate that day and didn't know it until 3 hours after the market closed! Talk about Ouch!!! I will start posting my charts with the signals on them but I am still tweeking them as I haven't gotten all the bugs out since going to MetaStock instead of my old Excel based system. Good Luck, Lee