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Technology Stocks : WAVX Anyone? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SlateColt who wrote (5860)	3/6/1999 9:30:00 PM
From: andrew peterson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11417

Slate -- for what it's worth, I appreciate your raising the issue of valuation again. I just haven't had time or focus to respond to it myself but I think it's a key question. It's come up from time to time as long as I've been on this board (which is quite a long time by now), but until recently it hasn't been one we could even reasonably address. I guess one reason that I haven't been driven to dive head first into this discussion is that I've felt fairly comfortable with the Sprague's presentation of how they feel WAVX should be valued -- by the customer. It just makes sense to me. Of course, you never know how the street will actually see things. But a big part of this will hinge on how WAVX presents itself in terms of its financials, and they are making it clear that this is how they are going to make their case once they've tested the market with the HAUP boards. My sense of it is that there's no way to tell for sure until those numbers start coming in and we see whether the street is willing or not to accept a user-based valuation. As far as I'm concerned, that's the only way that makes sense. I understand your frustration with the lack of discussion on the subject, though. I think one of my first posts here (it was # eighty something, I believe) was about just this subject. What kind of revenue model are we going to be looking at and how will valuation work from there. For the sake of history, here's my first post: Message 531659 Anyone else care to chip in with an opinion?

To: SlateColt who wrote (5860)	3/7/1999 12:45:00 AM
From: French Bikini	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

Slate wanna wager??? 3-5 million chips by 2nd or 3rd Quarter NEXT year you say, oh no, ...you underestimate the course of events to follow next weeks Nasdaq relisting. Betcha over 10 TEN million deployed by Christmas 99!! You win and I'll send ya $100 bill, crisp, new.....not much, it's the fun of the wager. email your address if you win. But, you won't........ F_B (getting ready to buy a whole new wardrobe)

To: SlateColt who wrote (5860)	3/7/1999 9:03:00 AM
From: John	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

Hello SlateColt, I think the Wave valuation model ultimately depends on the out come of field-testing. It will be very simple if Wave's metering function is a hit with consumers. Just multiply the usage dollars, by number of meters deployed, add in deployment estimates for (X) years and there you go. If the revenue from metering is weaker than expected, but the security proves to be successful, look for Wave to up their licensing fee to new customers and lean a little more toward commodity valuation, with a twist. In regards to deployment, I strongly believe Wave will hit their 3-5 million marks in 1999...iF WinTV is successful. If WinTV does not prove to be an instant homerun, look for adjustments in deployment numbers because roll out schedules will never happen without field data verifying the consumer accepts the product. Just more opinions...John