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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Graham who wrote (38020)	3/7/1999 11:37:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bob Graham: Well, I see you are pontificating about the differences of expectations and predictions again. Seems you are intent on using this difference in meaning as a platform for a point of contention and as a soapbox for meaningless rhetoric. In my previous post, I was attempting to distinguish the difference between a prediction and an expectation about the market. The difference to some people will be small or inconsequential. This distinction is all but lost on people who place allot of significance on their predictions, perhaps even a little of their own self worth. It seems in your rhetoric you have planted a not so subtle insult, as well. I am not a day trader and do not trade for a living. AND But I claim that this difference is what is essential and needs to be understood by the trader for their continued success trading in the markets. Seems you are not a day trader, but you do have essential advise for day traders, right? I for one respect and appreciate the individuals on this thread and the MDA thread that post their "expectations" of the Market's direction, often after hours of personal analysis. Many, on this thread post their "expectations" supplemented with a variety of supportive information: (EWave Counts, P&F Charts, Personal Charts, Traditional TA Charts, Links to Technical Information, Fundamental Analysis, Links to Fundamental Data, Links to supportive commentary and statistics) I am very surprised that many did not see the possibility of the recent market move up and the visible evidence that has been in place to support such a possibility. Being wrong sometimes goes with the territory. But I do respect their efforts offering up their hard work and Market Direction "expectations" before the fact. It is easy to Monday morning quarterback and point out the "visible evidence" missed. Of course, we can all do "after the fact" analysis and be right, can't we! Robert, please post a link where you pointed out the "visible evidence" and offered up the "expectation" that the Market was going to pop this past week, before the fact! Or, do you just give advice to those that do put their "expectations" on the line? Regards, LG

To: Robert Graham who wrote (38020)	3/7/1999 11:37:00 AM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Where are the longer term analysis? Most of the market analysis on SI is done by short term traders and scalpers. To me, from a purely objective mathematical, probability, and theoretical standpoint, this is a losing battle from the get go. Also, it lends itself to a whipsaw. When you try to trade market volatility, and your using sensible money management techniques, you need to make many successful scalps to make a living. When you start decreasing the time horizon and increasing the trading frequency, the law of averages works against you. It's easier to jump on a longer term wave and forget the daily ripples to make the huge gains. Most recently Micron springs to mind. The whole Wall Street establishment was yelling BUY BUY, and the thing was already parabolic, and technicians were all saying UP. But a slightly longer term view said down, and that's where the killing was made ;-) Everybody is screaming UP for the market now, but I think a slightly longer term view says DOWN (especially the Nasdaq).

To: Robert Graham who wrote (38020)	3/7/1999 12:12:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Robert, I would like to address a couple of your comments. "I am very surprised that many did not see the possibility of the recent market move up and the visible evidence that has been in place to support such a possibility." Have you read ALL the posts in the last week on this and the MDA thread? I think if you do, you will see that MANY were expecting the possibility of the move Thursday & Friday. "Perhaps one difference is that I did not let my expectations of the market color what I actually saw the market doing, while others allowed their predictions to flaw their observations and judgement." I wonder who those were. Maybe point me to some posts??? Sounds rather judgemental IMHO. One other observation is that in order to respond to what happened Thursday and Friday one must be somewhat of a very short term trader which is exactly what you say you aren't. To take advantage of the move those 2 days one would have been buying Thursday in REACTION to the change and as a result would have been chasing the market. The other possibility would have been to go long Wednesday in anticipation (which is in essence a prediction) of a trend change. If wrong, then in order to preserve capital, one would have to recognize that they were wrong and reverse their position which leads to my next point. "I also have been reminded by a trader who I have allot of respect for that it is the stocks that I follow and participate in that matter" I respectfully submit that one had better have some ideas as to what they EXPECT/PREDICT for the short & intermediate term of the overall market because his INDIVIDUAL STOCKS are sure going to be affected. There is nothing wrong with EXPECTATIONS/PREDICTIONS. IMHO they are a MUST as only by having those can one really MEASURE when they are proven wrong or right. If one does not have that then they are less apt to recognize that they need to add to/reduce/modify their position. "I can operate this way because I am not a day trader and do not trade for a living." Then I must assume you are strickly a LONG TERM investor (5 year + time horizon). If that is the case, why would you worry about confirmations of specific market moves? Regards Monty

To: Robert Graham who wrote (38020)	3/7/1999 12:17:00 PM
From: Skeet Shipman	Respond to of 94695

On Wednesday with GM's 18% sales increase I raised my expectations on spending and with it my market expectations. Factors I'm considering for the near term. The anemic 400 point rally verses a charting breakout of the leadership financials and oils? Knowing those bond and oil futures traders are a SPOOKY (skookable) bunch and the upside of both is limited? Well, I have not reached a conclusion yet. What really SCARES me is there are market gurus looking at interest rate market valuation models!!!!!!!!? Skeet