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Technology Stocks : Navigant International (FLYR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry who wrote (473)	3/8/1999 5:10:00 PM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 725

If there is anything I am missing, I wish someone would tell me too...and then tell management who has been buying this stock from the 6s to the 8s. Profitability with low P/E and decent growth rate. I have to think this one is waaaay oversold but who knows? New web site up in a few weeks, correct? TG

To: Henry who wrote (473)	3/8/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: M. Frank Greiffenstein	Respond to of 725

Under our eyes... Is there anything all of us on this board are missing? Do you mean besides our money? <g> I don't think we are missing anything. Many factors have conspired here, (1) including the piss poor performance of small cap value stocks and (b) FLYR's ongoing lack of internal growth. The market does not seem to care that FLYR is pursuing a successful roll-up strategy that promises fatter margins in the future, and the market doesn't seem to give a hoot that FLYR is migrating operations to the 'Net. Only 'Net stocks that have potential to get NEW customers through the door are doing well. FLYR it seems is moving to the 'Net only to more conveniently service old customers. Until FLYR can use the Internet to attract new customers, it will not draw the attention of investors beyond this small merry band here on SI. I will be patient and wait for the market to come to me. DocStone

To: Henry who wrote (473)	3/8/1999 6:12:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 725

The way I see it is that the stock is down because some investors were disappointed about the write-off and fears about the aggressive roll-up strategy have come out in the open due to the lag of getting the next big round of additional financing. Roll-up strategies work if the industry is in a period of consolidation, which the travel industry is, and if the company actually is able to achieve better efficiencies and synergies from the combining of operations. This often works to advantage in an industry that has been characterized by numerous small operators. The risk is that Navigant won't have the critical mass to be one of the few players left at the end of the consolidation. That may not end all that badly because a larger company in turn may swallow up Navigant. Until the company gets the financing needed to continue with aggressive growth, the question remains whether the numbers look as good as they apparently do. If the numbers aren't cooked in some way, then why can't the company secure financing? Shouldn't this be a no-brainer for the investment bankers? If growth and profits look as good as they apparently do, then this should happen in due course - the longer it takes, the more concern there is. --------- The other factor, IMO, is that many people jumped into the stock with the expectation that it would become the next big Internet play. Although Navigant has 8 Internet sites among its subsidiaries, they do not position themselves as an Internet company and seem devoid of imagination in taking full advantage of it. That statement is being very harsh, but that is what the perception of many analysts and investors is prejudiced to be these days: if you can pose yourself as a potential Internet juggernaut, then your stock is likely to get hot. Being realistic about the prospects for the Internet is not what drives this market. Maybe part of that is because the market has gone nuts and part of it may be because there is real concern that Navigant management "Just Doesn't Get It" when it comes to Internet strategies and build-out. Either you're hot or you're not . . . FLYR is not . . . at least until they get their financial act together and more convincingly spell out their future.

To: Henry who wrote (473)	3/10/1999 10:58:00 AM
From: Lane Hall-Witt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 725

The simple fact of the matter, it seems, is that the market only cares about momentum. The mo-mo is with the Nifties and the Nets, and it's against the values. For short- and mid-term traders, it looks like value is dead, dead, dead -- unless you happen to time the upturn perfectly (e.g., FLC in the low 5s). Will this situation change? Eventually, I suppose it will; but it's hard to tell when that might possibly be. What's the incentive for a switch away from the mo-mos? What fund managers are going to turn away from the money-making mo-mos and toward the dead values, when they have to hit their numbers every quarter, month, week? What short-term hype players are going to risk money in a dead sector, waiting for a turnaround? In the near future, at least, I find it hard to tell where the incentive to invest in value will come from. I'm very comfortable as a value investor, because I truly do believe that value will continue to pay off over the long run. But I've had to change my mindset for shorter-term trading: the object isn't so much to identify the best companies, the yet-to-be-discovered gems, but rather to identify the best stocks, those that are blessed with volatility and liquidity. This really grates on me, because I truly enjoy reading SEC filings and finding promising, undervalued companies like FLYR. But the reality of today's market says, quite plainly, that this isn't the best approach to short-term trading; and for as much satisfaction as there is about being right about a company, the objective is to make money, and to do that you have to be right about a stock. Please excuse the rambling. I'm really just trying to come to terms with a phenomenon -- extreme market irrationality -- that is hard for me to accept.