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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (50719)	3/8/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: mike jolley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Early, > AMD, the low cost supplier can't sell their production I'm a bit of a bear myself, but I interpreted the AMD announcement a little differently than you. I read into the announcement that AMD is having production problems (which they're famous for) that are hindering their ability to ship enough chips to meet the demand for the K6. Either way, it isn't good news for INTC. Jolley From a news release: Advanced Micro Devices Inc., a maker of microprocessors and other chips, said Monday it now expected a ''significant loss'' in its first quarter because of manufacturing problems earlier in the quarter with its core K6 family of chips. Monday, AMD's co-chief operating officer, Atiz Raza, told a Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Semiconductor Conference that the company would fall short of its previous goal of shipping 5.5 million units of the K6 family in the first quarter. ''As we moved later in the quarter, we had a much better idea of what was actually happening,'' Allen said, adding that the problems were a continuation of manufacturing problems that had occurred in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, AMD's earnings fell short of analysts' expectations, due to the production problems.

To: Earlie who wrote (50719)	3/8/1999 7:02:00 PM
From: Kerry Phineas	Respond to of 132070

Earlie et al., I don't know if you've read these or not, but found it interesting considering the retail problems that INTC is facing right now. Message 8088349 Message 8089417

To: Earlie who wrote (50719)	3/8/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

The Celeron is not a better chip than the K6 and the K6 is cheaper. Earlie, sorry but your information is outdated and wrong concerning price. Celeron is slightly cheaper than K6-2 at all equivalent speeds from 300 to 366, and about $20 cheaper at 400Mhz. I never stated one chip was "better" than the other. Rather, I offered a possible explanation for AMDs shortfall. The problem is an industry-wide GLUT. Perhaps. But its probably more of a glut than a GLUT <g>. And I remain unconvinced that it will be long enough lasting to make puts pay off. The easy money has been made by those fortunate enough to buy those puts when INTC was at $140. Much tougher love (for the bears) from here <g>. It is well known that the Celeron is the P2 in a new tee shirt, with cache in its hip pocket. This is not the stuff of which market share is "retaken" I agree about Celeron compared to P2, except of course for server application where neither Celeron or AMD can compete with P2/P3. And market share at the low end is all about price. So Celeron is obviously more competitive now, and IS retaking share. Intel is essentially a one-trick pony,...micros. Micros sell only to box-builders but boxes are in glut. Well, this is quite a broad classification. INTC hits every segment of the x86 business. I guess this is a "one-trick pony", but its really AMD that is one trick (low end PCs), trying to come up with a few other tricks (laptop, midrange). AMD, the low cost supplier can't sell their production,.....what does this say about INTC's ability to sell their micros? What makes you think AMD didn't sell all their production? They never stated this. I believe their limited capacity has left them short of their 5.5 million stated goal, as they attempt to ramp the much more profitable K6-3. They have to give up low end share if they have any hope of ever returning to profitability. Now we know that the P3 is, as I had warned, a big "yawn" in the marketplace. So what to do now Intel? I generally agree. I'd imagine only the 500Mhz P3 are selling well, givent the 450 offers nothing over the 450 P2. There will always be that class of user that needs the highest possible speed. Hence, my view that any INTC hiccup will be short-lived. INTC will be bringing .18 into production in about 3 months. And with it, processors in the 600-800Mhz range. Don't fool yourself. INTC sells many millions of these high priced CPUs. Gary