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Technology Stocks : PSFT - 1999: The "Make-It-or-Break-It" Year? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (219)	3/11/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: bob zagorin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1274

i agree in part michelle. large blue chips have generally completed largescale ERPs but small and mid-size cos and rest of world haven't. there is also a lot of room for SCM, OLAP, sales mgt, e-commerce etc. most of my $$ in this sector is in smaller os. that target these areas more directly but i do think PSFt is a great bet with a 6-12 mos horizon because of their huge installed base that can move to these areas.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (219)	3/11/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: David W. Ricker	Respond to of 1274

It is all about timeframes. PSFT and SAP have much longer implementation timeframes than SEBL or I2. I have done both types over the course of my career and there is nothing more of a pain in the a** than an HR/Payroll/Benefits/Financial installation. Front office is much simpler. Even SCM is simpler. Their day will come. Take heed now.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (219)	3/11/1999 3:29:00 PM
From: Tom Smith	Respond to of 1274

Michelle, I don't follow Siebel that closely, so I can't really say why they haven't slowed down yet. If they continue through the next year with no Y2K impact, then my hat is off to them. Routers and networking software, on the other hand, are fairly Y2K immune due to the non-stop growth of networking demand. When a router maxes out on throughput, an IT organization has no choice but to upgrade/expand capacity. A Y2K freeze is impossible, except for perhaps a month or two around 12/31/99. ERP software, as I'm sure you know, is much more flexible in terms of deployment scheduling. Many organizations can clunk along for a year or more on their current systems until after the Y2K threat is over. I'm not saying all the difficulties in the ERP sector are due to Y2K. Baan in particular is a mess from top to bottom. I believe SAP is also overvalued. But the long-term, worldwide market for ERP/e-commerce software has not come close to "saturation". In fact, it is growing constantly. Y2K has simply put a year-long delay on most new deployments. All MHO, of course. Tom