Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : PSFT - 1999: The "Make-It-or-Break-It" Year? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shane M who wrote (225)	3/11/1999 7:10:00 PM
From: david	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1274

I suspect PSFT's trades followed ORCL's. ORCL dropped to 30 and change after market close. we may see some selling pressure on psft tommorrow. it's amazing that psft kept close above 18 in the last three days, esp. today. but i think this time psft may have to go to 17-, barring there is no takeover rumor. d.

To: Shane M who wrote (225)	3/11/1999 7:41:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1274

Re: JDEC, PSFT, SAP, ORCL Size matters. I like JDEC on a valuation basis becuase while PSFT is 1/2 the valuation of SAP or ORCL, JDEC is literally 1/4 the valuation, if one uses the PSR of <1.5 as a guide. And on the surface JDEC has that mid-market angle already. But it may come down to R&D. If the ERP industry needs to reinvent itself to come to terms with e-biz, large-co saturation, and demand for vertical apps, it will take R&D dollars and staying power. On this basis, the pecking order might be Oracle, SAP, PSFT, then JDEC just on sheer size/sales/R&D resources. JDEC's $20M/Q R&D might not cut it. Any comments? Could it be this is an inflection point, the results of which are still being determined? If so, the sheer uncertainty of it all could be what is truly weighing on the industry. Much more so than Y2K (since one would expect that the market doesn't slash 75% of the value of multi-billion dollar enterprises simply due to 1-2 year phenomena expected to pass). Valuation takes into account consistency and punishes unpredictability. It is my understanding that we don't have a clear winner (or loser) yet in the new paradigm. If there is undervaluation here, it is hard to define, but it would have to take into account the acquisition value of these firms PSFT and JDEC rather than the stand-alone value. All IMO. Good investing, Mike