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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CJ Quantumwell who wrote (9389)3/17/1999 7:23:00 PM
From: Afaq Sarwar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10479
 
Bloomberg's coverage of today's news:

quote.bloomberg.com



To: CJ Quantumwell who wrote (9389)3/19/1999 12:09:00 AM
From: Afaq Sarwar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10479
 
CJ,

Thanks for sharing your point of view about Osicom's prospects, both short term and long term. In reference to your cautious and bearish long term view, I would like to benefit from your research on metro DWDM in the light of your background as a telecom professional. I hope that you will be able to discuss these when you have some time.

You had indicated that you expect "strong competitions coming in 6-9 months". I know about Lucent, Ciena, Cambrian/Nortel as the major players indicating that they intend to bring metro DWDM product to the market in the near future. Are you aware of any other major players besides these. Are you confident that these major players have a true metro DWDM product that they are working on, not just a long haul DWDM retrofitted to act as metro DWDM.

You had expressed positive views on Osicom's EPC product that is intended to work with GigaMux to extend its reach closer to the end user of the increased bandwidth. Do you know if any of these major players has or is working on a product like EPC. Also, do you think that without a product like EPC, these major players can effectively address the real needs of metro networks.

It a common knowledge in the industry that these major players often announce "vapor ware" in the hope that the potential customers will not go with the newer players in the market who already have a needed product. Such a statement was recently made by an analyst about Lucent in his research report about the same company in reference to its claim that it will have the metro DWDM product ready in the 3rd. quarter of 1999. Ciena has also been indicating now for well over a year that they will have their metro product ready soon. Their recent acquisition of Lightera and Omnia, they had indicated in the related conference call, has been made to, in part, support their metro DWDM product. This would suggest that they have holes in their product that they are just starting to address. The situation with Cambrian is not much different. What is your personal assessment as to when these major players will actually have a true metro DWDM ready for shipment.

There is no question that eventually there will be other players in the market with competing metro DWDM product. Do you think that these players will also have to go through 12 to 18 month long sales cycle that Osicom has gone through with some customers and is in such cycle with other potential customer.

Finally, on software management system aspect of the product. What is your understanding as to how the other players fare regarding this aspect of the metro DWDM product.

I realize that I am asking for a lot of information, but if you are able to discuss these items, it will help me evaluate my, presently, extremely bullish view of Osicom, short and long term. My long term view is sort of hedged with the realization that the market cap of Osicom is so low that potential rewards for shareholders do not entirely depend on Osicom,s ability to compete toe to toe with larger players. In a industry that is under consolidation, with Osicom's product mix that addresses metro DWDM market well, some large player may/will buy them out. If that happen any where close to a fair price of their technology and products, the investors will make out like bandits.

Regards,

Afaq Sarwar