Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Valueman who wrote (5508)	3/18/1999 11:45:00 PM
From: djane	Respond to of 10852

Valueman, that is one of the best posts I've ever seen on SI. I just sent it to a couple buddies who invested in LOR based on my urging. Much, much appreciated. djane

To: Valueman who wrote (5508)	3/19/1999 12:43:00 AM
From: defendall	Respond to of 10852

I also agree. Valueman you have done an excellent job of trying to put reason where there appears to be none. I am one of those long investors who now fret as to when and how we will benefit. I sense with even the most loyal of supporters the faith and self doubts beginning to set in. Thanks for all your efforts.

To: Valueman who wrote (5508)	3/19/1999 1:09:00 AM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

Hi Valueman: While we are waiting for LOR to be worth at least the sum of its parts, what's your take on GMH's planned broadband satellite constellation? With Cyberstar/Skybridge and Teledesic already in the ring, is three a crowd? How did they get the frequency spectrum for this project, or was this planned all along, but some of us were unaware of it? Best regards, Bernard Levy PS: For techies out there, there is a good special issue of the IEEE Communications Magazine on satellite ATM network architectures.

To: Valueman who wrote (5508)	3/19/1999 9:28:00 AM
From: brian h	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

Vman and all, Am I only invest in LORAL and G* into the future? There are a lot of risks involved buying into LORAL and G. How do we address that to a potential buyer? Any comment? That will help G and LORAL address to the general public. 1. Technology risk. Are any of the stuff that LOR claims works? Loral's Global Alliance and Cyberstar can transfer raw data like GBLX's is doing? Being a backbone. Not yet. Right? The same to G. Is it really working? Sprint PCS is taking off like a rocket after proving itself to the general public. We may have to wait that long too. Patience. 2. Market Risk. Even it is working on all fronts. How large is the market? How fast and easily can be done? Comparing to the average mobil phone user for G, the average user of using 56 k modem for LOR, the average user of using sat. TV or data feeds for Loral's corporate customers? 3. Launch risk. We all know this too well. Right. 4. Political risk. We know this one too, do we not? Brian H.

To: Valueman who wrote (5508)	3/19/1999 12:40:00 PM
From: Rocket Scientist	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10852

Respectfully, VMan, I think your analysis has a few weak spots. Though I'm very long on Loral/G, my position is based on the hope of the company actually making a net profit in the not too distant future, not on a multiple of EBITDA. And G will either make a big positive--or negative--contribution to that net; if G* fails, I don't think the EBITDA from Skynet, SS/L and the rest will make much difference. As far as EBITDA multiples, when you compare EBITDA multiples of other companies, do you take into account what their depreciation and interest expenses are relative to Loral's? I believe that, assuming reasonable G* success, Loral's EBITDA will start generating net income by 2001, but the path there is a little obscure and risky. To the extent an investor doesn't see the path or think's it high risk, why should he pay any multiple on EBITDA? What is SS/L worth? In CY98 it generated 107M$ EBITDA and I don't think we know how much of that would have flowed to net profit. And I don't see SS/Ls profitability growing very fast. There's actually fierce competition in the sat mnfctg business and if anything an oversupply of capacity. And I don't see why it should matter to an investor how much it would cost to duplicate SS/L: what matters is how much money it makes, either directly or by spinning off good new businesses. If you believe G* or C* will make money, and/or SS/L has a chance of generating other good new ventures, then SS/L is worth a lot. Otherwise, not. Regards, RS