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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SE who wrote (19575)	3/27/1999 1:38:00 PM
From: peter n matzke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Scott, I heard an "analyst" say that the valuation needs to be adjusted by the borrowing rate, to be effective. If you were to adjust the referenced chart by the cost of money, it may not seem as extreme.

To: SE who wrote (19575)	3/27/1999 4:34:00 PM
From: nicewatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Hi Scott, Hmm...Earnings really need to start popping to get back to the mean, don't they? In a very general sense, yes, I agree.... but I have found most of those longer term gauges, etc. to be of little use in trading. For example, strictly following the chart you posted, someone -rationally- looking at earnings would have been screaming DEFCON 1 since the middle of 1997. A very painful false alarm <gggg>, or an alarm so early, that is does more harm than good. At the same time, I think it's foolish to be oblivious of history.... and even more foolish to trade off of history. <ggg> a chart -like yours- that I had been looking at for a while, until they stopped updating it (a while ago) was- cpcug.org it hasn't been updated for an inappropriately long time... so you're going to have to eyeball it, for the most recent point. it comes from this site... cpcug.org which lists a page of historical data sources. To be honest, I've never really dug into the site much... it was something I bookmarked and then forgot about. If there's any decent data there, please let me know. Talk to you later Regards, Frank