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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9328)	3/28/1999 7:27:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ========================================== Previously, I had mentioned that I was expecting a STAIRSTEP in the 9550-9800 range, but last week 9800 was broken to the upside. The next resistance area is 9900. After the strong gain on Thursday there was no followthru on FRIDAY. My short-term technicals are smack in the middle again. In light of these issues I feel that we may continue to zig-zag a bit longer and that the range of the STAIRSTEP just moved up some. The end of month rally should also start soon, which statistically begins with the last 2 days of the month and continues 2-3 days into the following month. So it is possible that we could get close to 10000 again, if we dont head down first. With my short-term technicals in the middle, its a flip of the coin; the probability of calling the correct direction movement here is low. My calculation, purely mathematical implies that the upside and downside potential from here is about 200-300 points, so 10,000 is a possibility again. With all the volitility last week, the DOW is only down 80 points for the week. If I recall correctly, prior to the big pullback last year, it was common to see big intraday swings within a zig-zagging pattern - lots of movement. So as silly as it sounds, we got the ABBEY COHEN 3 day indicator to hit tomorrow which is that the 3rd day after she makes a comment the market reverses in the opposite direction. Hey, I wouldnt put any money on it, but I just like mentioning it since I love all those analysts gggggggggggggggggg. Seeya

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9328)	3/28/1999 8:57:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Message 8557947 Lee, if this PW report is even remotely close to reality for the remainder of 1999, the tech sector is going to have a tough time rebounding. Aside from the fact that PC is one of the mainstays of techs, what holds true in this survey should apply to other purchases, such as networks. We already know, via ORCL and CA, that the software sector is weak. MSFT is only going up on completely irrelevant DOJ news. For the techs to rely on the internut bubbles for support, it may be wishful thinking. Ramsey

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9328)	3/28/1999 9:15:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Of the 14 stocks in the OTC Most Actives (OTX), half are still technically strong and half are broken: leaders - MSFT, SUNW, NOVL, WCOM, CSCO, ASND, AMGN holding up - YHOO downtrend - AMAT, COMS, DELL, INTC, ORCL, QNTM A Microsoft settlement could boost MSFT, SUNW, NOVL, and ORCL. A similar group of leading stocks for the NYSE is actually in better shape probably due to greater diversity. leaders - AOL, EMC, GE, HD, MOT, TWX, TXN, TYC, WMT holding up - LU, ATI downtrend - CPQ, HWP, SEG, IBM, T The above stocks are selected on the basis of market cap and average daily volume.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9328)	3/29/1999 9:49:00 AM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

L3, I think you've summed up the way many of us feel about the market right here. What makes this call rather difficult right now is the fact that so many of the market generals, the true leaders of the past few years, are at different points on their charts. While MSFT and the Nutz, are pointing to higher prices. We have stocks like INTC and DELL that have clearly lagged the rest of the group - and need desperately to make a move. That's why I feel this week is critical for the bulls. Having all of these divergences on the charts can make chart reading pretty nerve racking sometimes. But I really do think another week or so and the horizon may be a little easier to see. We can only hope. Good trading. SO