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Technology Stocks : PSFT - 1999: The "Make-It-or-Break-It" Year? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raptor who wrote (368)	3/31/1999 10:30:00 AM
From: bob zagorin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1274

March 29, 1999, Issue: 835 Section: News -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights: Event draws more than 800 industry attendees -- At Reseller XChange: IBM Rolls Out ERP Program, Pinacor Forms Compaq Team Jerry Rosa & Elliot Markowitz Dana Point, Calif. - IBM Corp. is rolling out a new program that brings together its Business Partners and ISVs to capture new opportunities in the lucrative enterprise resource planning (ERP) market. The program was unveiled last week to a select group of resellers and integrators attending Reseller XChange, an event coordinated by CMP Media Inc.'s Channel Group. The event drew more than 800 attendees, including resellers, distributors and vendors. IBM, Armonk, N.Y., needs to partner with the channel to capitalize on the ERP space, which is expected to hit $60 billion by 2002, said Greg Corgan, vice president of Global Industries Solutions Sales at IBM. "The ERP market is huge. We have to get much more effective in using [our Business Partners] in this space," he said. To achieve this, IBM formed a Solution Specialty initiative revolving around ERP solutions and is providing a joint channel marketing program with key ISVs including J.D. Edwards & Co., PeopleSoft Inc. and SAP AG, to provide complete solutions to enterprise customers, Corgan said. The ERP specialty is based on a portfolio of IBM hardware, software and services, ISVs' software and requires the skills training on ERP from the channel. "We are teaming up with ERP vendors and partners to try and bring packaged solutions to market," Corgan said. IBM also is looking to roll out similar specialty programs in the near future around electronic commerce, customer relationship management and supply chain re-engineering, he said...."

To: Raptor who wrote (368)	3/31/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1274

Fundamentally, this announcement should very much damage the bull case. At least as a prominent bear on the stock, I've had a lot of sometimes hateful feedback (not so much here but definitely in private e-mail and on the Yahoo board). A frequently cited statistic was that management had projected 20-30% revenue growth. Funny how confident it sounded at the time. God forbid management might be projecting confidence to dump record numbers of shares. Not that I believe this but it is in the realm of possibility. Now, the growth has not just slowed but stopped, with deteriorating margins (of course) thanks to piddling license sales. And with 80% of corporations planning on putting a freeze on new implementations in the last six months of 1999, the question becomes when will we see revenue contraction? Too, since I have developed some distaste for the ethics of PSFT management, I find it interesting that they announce this and then rapidly follow with "we will cease giving any kind of public projections in the future." Yeah, in public. Soundview and other favored analysts will still have the right to grab an entire afternoon of audience with top brass, at shareholders' expense, on shareholders' time. Mike