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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Slugger who wrote (9520)	4/4/1999 9:27:00 AM
From: Robert K.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17367

Slugger> I would venture a guess that the underpowered 130 target was assuming the lack of potential usa accruals. I bet the uk changed that equation to a targeted mortality number then estimated to be 200 to obtain a reasonable power. Just my guess. Bluegreen>there are lots of host defense proteins and peptides, and we fall "generally" into the larger protein category. But again even if its not us (probably not), its still a further confirmation of the bpi line of R&D.> IMO if you look at all the host defense molecules ,all attributes, nothing comes close. If you look at individual properties, certainly a better this or better that can always be found or made. Remember, bpi "may" affect a whole range of human systems. IMO its the range and the synergy of the molecules systemic effects that make bpi unique. For example>ATIII. It targets ONE human system.(in general) Perhaps better than bpi perhaps not. >BPI "perhaps" targets the same general system and many others in concert. I have said and maintained many times that their are probably 4 or 5 reasons why bpi "may" work in meningo. Might be just one reason, might be a combination of reasons, or might not work at all. The human body has lots of build in redundancies , and this is the reason for so many failed trials to date. Bpi is a molecule might be able to deal with redundancies in its own unique way (or perhaps not) In summary I dont think anyone really knows what effects the combination of bpi properties will do given various scenarios. I think xoma is doing a excellent job of trying to figure it out via broad testing and research. My personal feeling always comes back to the fact that bpi21 is based upon a NATURAL human protein, and is there for a reason for bpi to be naturally within us.. The fact that within bpi contains coding for a range of activities and actions,(antifungal,antiangio,anti-endo,etc,etc......) leads me to believe that halo bpi is some sort of master molecule in our bodies that has actions across many human systems. IMO we just need understand it and to tame its power. All disclaimers always apply to all my notes. Treat nothing as fact. Never invest based on what I say. Treat as worthless reading. Standard K.

To: Slugger who wrote (9520)	4/4/1999 2:03:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

Slugger, The total mortality of 57, I gave example in post 9520 is an approximation of what could be a reasonable outcome based on the phase II bpi trial(4% mortality) and the historical mortality in standard treatment (30% to 60%) depending on stage of shock. Then I used conservative numbers to arrive to a trial sample on each group by Glasgow scores. The 130 patients was a DSMB meeting review for safety issues, not a Xoma goal for efficacy. The 200 patients was a rough estimate (and probably based on slow recruitment)ending trial earlier has been in the speculation of Murphy, and this thread (check post 5214). And this was for extremely good outcomes. Check post 6523, already at the time of that presentation (first half of 1998) it was already considered a number in the 300s range. The stratification of the trial was a good move, but it will take more patients to complete it. Some argue for a total mortality in the low 30s, this speculation is baseless, unless one assume close to zero mortality in the bpi group, and this is highly unlikely, but possible. This trial is ongoing as any trial of its king would. Trying to read into it with the purpose of timing the stock is useless. Either one believes in the known basic and clinical sciences behind bpi, or one does not. I believe in bpi efficacy, but less than 10% of my money is on it (and as a gauge is a poor one, given my assets is a small amount, not what people call smart money). I am just waiting for the trial completion to make a decision to invest more or not. Xoma is a highly speculative investment, is a make it or brake it type of company. Xoma is not going to gamble their existence in a rush trial leaving poor data, they already had the E5 debacle, almost going out of business for it. By the way, does anyone has the data on the E5 trials? I have never seen anything but animal studies in press.