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Technology Stocks : Dupont Photomasks (DPMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (821)	4/17/1999 1:00:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 955

You can if you like, but I'm not here to tout them. I still am in AXC because I think they are going to IPO a subsidiary, TV-on-the-WEB in the next several weeks. I still have PROG but have some mixed feelings about it. I reduced my position substantially on the last run up. As for VECO, I like it very much but have been forced to take a hit and run approach to it lately. What is your timetable for a substantial pick up in the mask sector? How fast do you think these companies will grow going forwards? Thanks in advance, Carl

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (821)	4/19/1999 8:54:00 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 955

Hi Duane, haven't caught up with you in a while but thought I'd horn in on your "last mile" question despite my normal bashfulness :-) You have all the obvious candidates, i.e., the cable modem guys which pretty much means At Home and Roadrunner and then you have the DSL guys which is a much more densely populated party. Two you might want to look at are COVD [particularly if it continues to get obliterated in the current bloodbath] and a dark horse ALA. Alcatel is kind of like buying GLW to participate in the fiber industry--they are into it at the infrastructure level and not well known to the public but their experience in DSL is real deep. Since T scared the hell out of all the RBOCs with the TCI deal, the Babys are jumping on DSL with considerable gusto after snoozing most of the last couple of years and I suspect Alcatel will be a prime beneficiary of the catch-up game. Building up a pretty decent head of steam are the broadband fixed wireless folks (Teligent and Winstar). These guys can transmit a pipe fat enough to satisfy any conceivable user though their target audience at present is small/medium sized business rather than the home customer. The beauty of course is that they don't have to pay ransom to the guys who own the current pipes in order to play the game. They are line of sight dependent but technology enhancements are mitigating this drawback. And, just in case you wondered if I was still among the faithful, this is your last chance to acquire Loral and Globalstar at give away prices! Here's your internet in the sky and the hell with all that rusting twisted pair copper! O.K. so it's a few years out for the purest form but Hughes will sell you one today as long as you're willing to provide a separate ISP channel for the uplink. The downlink is blazing fast and no squirrels can chew through the lines just as you're downloading Pamela Lee or the Chess Channel in your case. Now I do hope that you faithfully listened to my solemn warnings to buy Qualcomm last year and know that your net worth has benefitted handsomely from that sage advice :-) Truth be told, I think an investor has to spread his chips around the table to play the 'last mile' investment as I don't see that it's possible to make a "big winner" pick from among the competing technologies. Cable, DSL, FBB, and satellites will all play a part in getting broadband to the home. Each has strengths and each has weaknesses. Nothing at all like nailing CDMA for wireless telephony: you knew Qualcomm was going to toast GSM simply because they had a 10:1 advantage in spectrum efficiency [or 30:1 depending on which engineer you listened to]. If the Big Gorilla of Last Mile to the Home has emerged from the forest I ain't seen him--but that doesn't mean there aren't $$$ to be made. How you hitting the little white pill? Best regards, Mike Doyle