To: Steven Finkel who wrote (6013 ) 4/27/1999 9:03:00 PM From: Rande Is Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 57584
To all. . . .some scattered thoughts. . . Remember when I said I was not too thrilled about jumping back into Inets just yet? . . .AOL hits the whisper number, but trades down after hours. DCLK was spanked for not BEATING the street. The rest of the Internets were down sharply today. . .just look at long ports today. . .all down about 3-4 percent today. Moves in some cyclicals again towards the EOD. Bathtub plug about to be pulled? Could tomorrow be like the Wednesday when we could not get any trades off? I plan to sell into gaps on a number of speculatives. But if I cannot sell thru my online brokers, I will sell thru full-service brokers, then just transfer the shares. Suggest considering alternatives. . .and expect the worst. Glad I am not stuck with large positions in internets right now. . . .chose to play the speculatives this time around. . . quick bites of BIDS, ELCO, LOCK, more ROSI, some speculative TPEG to go with my long TPEG [mostly preferred which still lags the common]. . .and even bought some of an OTC called EDIG on a Lucent deal. Sorry I did not post the momos today. . .they were all moving too quickly and I was not the first there. . . when I can predict a momo, our risk is substantially reduced. . . if I feel there is too much risk, I don't post. . . too many trigger happy newbies. Yesterday's post of BIDS being daytraded illustrated that it was underway, implying that risk was increasing. . . but I felt confident enough about it to post. Turns out it made some extraordinary gains since that post. But on things like LOCK, I won't even post. Frankly, I think it is a joke. . . I don't mind making a few bucks on it as a daytrade ONLY. . .but I would not hold it more than a number of hours. Wal-Mart, K-Mart and local gun shops have a large selection of trigger locks made by a number of manufacturers. . . never have seen Saf-T-Lock as one of them. That says it all to me. SIDEBAR: This is why I keep saying that as part of our regular ongoing DD, we need to ask around our own towns' businesses. . . lots of leads there. . . that is how I found BYBI [undervalued] and others. . . then remember to look around when you go shopping or traveling. . . take mental notes of products that are gaining momentum or losing it. When you look at Sunday papers, check out the name brands that are being touted by the Best Buys, Circuit Citys, Office Max/Depot or Staples. . .etc. etc. All of this data gets considered when you contemplate pulling the trigger. If you are invested in a software company, and you can't find their software in a Computer City, then you may want to reconsider. I picked up some HRBC as a position based on Paul Allen's investment. I very much regret not loading up on IBM and QCOM recently. . . but happy with AVID and WMT. William sold some CHRZ today. . .I think it will still get up over 20 near-term, either way, we did well there. Getting a feeling that ROSI will be making similar daily gains as CHRZ from slow steady accumulation. Lots of short-covering rallys today. . .SGDE, CDNW, BAMM all started unexplainable rallys. Shorts are trying desperately to get a grip on BIDS, but can't find the handle. Frankly, I am having doubts they will find it. . .just too much interest and volume to think it was a flash in the pan. . . currently holding all free shares in LOCK and BIDS. . . when I play speculatives, my number one concern is eliminating risk as soon as possible. Never take eyes off the broadband related. . . that includes fibre-optics, ADSL [not necessarily xDSL], cable-modem, broadband content providers and ISPs, broadband/full-motion video and audio software developers, set-top box makers, set-top box component makers, etc. etc. . . .watch for those buzz words for leads. Never take eyes off T. A.T.and T. [for the 8th time] will be the WINNER of the Next Generation Internet race. . . IMO, there won't even be a close second. I love days when speculatives make money and T loses. . . new money goes into long term 'forget-about-it' position in T. T relatives also worth serious consideration. . . ATHM, LMG.a, XCIT, GIS, UMG [and family], TUNE, and others I cannot recall [do search for other posts on same subject]. . . T is not yet done buying, believe it or not. . . they know that they must act as quickly as possible, before we all bid up the companies they want to buy. . .making them pay more. Our job is to figure out what elements of their plan are missing. That will come from ongoing discussion on the subject. I cannot stress BDE enough. Don't tell me about moves of less than 1 dollar in either direction. I don't believe it matters. When I buy, I NEVER consider the 1/8ths. . . and nearly never fight for that extra teeny. . . let the brokers do that. . . if I am serious about a stock, I want it at any price in the region. . .if nobody is watching, I may play and try to buy only on dips [like BDE], but when the cat is out of the bag on a stock that I know has enormous potential, I just buy it. . . then increase the position on any dips that occur. Again, stay on toes in the morning. . . I smell a trap. Rande Is