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Technology Stocks : IDT *(idtc) following this new issue?* -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Arrow Hd. who wrote (6908)4/29/1999 8:16:00 PM
From: Jules B. Garfunkel  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 30916
 
Arrow,
I think we would be about 5 years premature if we were to contemplate an exit strategy now. I first bought IDTC based on your recommendation to research it. I should also add however, that your incredibly fantastic track record for spotting undervalued stocks, i.e. IBM, SKYM, DMRK...and more recently PCCG, ODSI and IDTC, were also very influential in my buying decision. The more I researched IDTC the more upside potential I thought I saw. And while some of your other picks, may well be shorter term plays, this one, I believe, is a KEEPER.

BTW, while I urge everyone to do their own research, at one point in my career I developed market strategy for AT&T.
Regards,
Jules



To: Arrow Hd. who wrote (6908)4/30/1999 2:33:00 AM
From: David Wise  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 30916
 
Arrow, wish I had a clue where IDTC was heading, I'd gladly share. With ZD and ZDZ - Zd is now the remaining paper magazine business in an electronic age. But it's funny how companies pay to advertise their internet sites in a paper magazine. Got to admit, though, everywhere I go I see ZD or ZDZ references.

Of course ZD did go from $29 to as low as $15 within 2 weeks of ZDZ spin off. I don't remember how much of ZDZ they still own.

IDTC has one of the most innovative management teams around. They started the long distance call back feature where you can save money over expensive foreign long distance calls by activating a US site to appear as the initiator of the call.

The internet telephony business is in its infancy IMHO. Broadband, cable modems, xDSL systems will eventually make it feasible and much more of a pleasant experience. I like the potential of researching on the internet and being able to call a company without leaving the PC. Auctions where you can see a product from home and call or type a bid, shopping, Internet VideoPhone (I think I coined this name), etc., should help Net2Phone grow revenue. Margin depends a lot on competition. Thanks to management, they are way out front promoting the product and striking aliances.

IDTC has had rapid revenue growth. It looks like margins are slowing, probably due to competition. Also, internet telephony R&D and roll out eats in to the margins. IDTC's value may actually be more visible if they IPO, and if margins then pick back up.

You may know that one very controversial point I've brought up is that a Net2Phone IPO has never been confirmed by the company. I've been called a fool in light of all the "obvious" signs. I think if the Marketwatch article was accurate re: Softbank taking an interest in Net2Phone (rather than IDTC as a whole, one might assume), they would have to do an IPO. The silence of analysts, the bond redemption and other points often made here don't mean much to me. Bonds are redeemed for many reasons, such as to obtain a larger credit facility at more favorable rates or factors. Could also be to finance an acquisition. The bonds redeemed are for $100 million; the new credit facility is for $150 million.

One thing I believe - IDTC will do well either way. Will there be disappointment and sell-off if they don't announce an IPO on Monday? I'm rather certain. Ditto if they announce an acquisition that isn't clearly beneficial. Softbank is a card I'm not sure how will play out. I don't trust the accuracy of this kind of news report as much as some do. The person they talked to was supposed to have said that they'd decide within 2 weeks of that date. No further announcements have been made. Why was the statement made and printed?

I think you've said as much as can be said "This entire series of deals may turn out to be fairly complicated and cloud the issue of fair value...". You ask for an exit strategy opinion. I haven't figured out an entry strategy, yet(but I've flipped the stock twice).

It's well worth watching closely for developments. I hope the developments come soon, cause I'm getting very tired. I'm anxious to see just what all of this is about. Just my opinion, I know, but I think IDTC will follow ZD and MALL exactly. IF they announce an IPO, the stock will get a lift, maybe as high as $39. I'd get out by then. And you'd have to be crazy not to get out the day before the IPO - or if really brave, that day. But if the final word does not involve an IPO, $18 could come quickly. Good luck! (sorry for the long response!)