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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Mansfield who wrote (1451)	5/3/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: charger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

In case you haven't noticed, the bubble has popped and air is leaking badly. Most charts are sporting double tops that look like the World Trade Center. I believe this rotation into the cyclical stocks which is propelling the Dow past 11K reflects the institutions'/market belief that an inflationy environment/global recovery is on the horizon. The discounting mechanism is in full swing, as cyclicals get bid up and high P/E stocks get crushed. It has just begun...

To: Dave Mansfield who wrote (1451)	5/3/1999 8:21:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Dave, follows is my stab at a guess Message 9124128 Having provided that link, I do think Charger may have a point in that from a technical perspective the nets recent run up appears to have stopped short of their previous high's. The selling that's occuring could well prove to be the concluding act to the double top spoken above. There's a interesting collection of technical analysis over at the following thread Subject 24052 Lastly Auric's post of Goldman's IPO is bearish to a number of historians in part due to Goldman's selling of stock in the Goldman trust back in 29 just prior to the market crash (loosing over 99% of its value in the ensuing 4 years). Your 4th qtr earnings season theory is interesting in that the 4th qtr is certianly the internets best chance to put numbers to the bottom line. It'll be interesting to see is we see a gradual deterioration or if panic strikes the sector. We'll probably see both and maybe more than once. With two accounts at one wire house now I'm a bit concerned about their viability in a panic environment Best Regards, Mad2 EDIT-BTW, if your going to formalize your guess and get in the hunt for some of AG's gold put a date on it with your trigger and post it.