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To: BGR who wrote (59745)	6/1/1999 9:27:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>> What I don't understand is that with crude and metal prices are dropping (which are forward indicators) how can the market be so concerned about inflation? And how can AA go up when Al prices has weak? << Have you been reading my thoughts through my internet connection ? Probably many people are wondering the same thing. Beside AA, PD (copper) also went up 5 pts in the midst of lowest copper prices in years. How's this for explanation. AA and PD are lowest cost producers. Lower metal prices will drive marginal producers out of business and force the shuttering of capacity. That will give the survivors bigger market share and also create a shortage down the line. When Asia demand comes back, AA and its counterparts will be able to raise prices and benefit from higher volumes. But you're right re gold and oil. However gold has central bank selling, so it is not a good indicator anymore. That leaves oil. For sure CPI will be low this time due to low fuel prices. So the only worry is the core CPI. If that is high, then maybe we'll get the the higher rates, and maybe the relief rally also.

To: BGR who wrote (59745)	6/1/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: Len	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Let's see: If the Fed raises rates - the market goes up If the Fed lowers rates - the market goes up If the CPI goes up - the market goes up If the CPI goes down - the market goes up I get it !! Anyone got some tulips?