Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator

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Strategies & Market Trends
Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator

An SI Board Since April 1997

Posts	SubjectMarks	Bans
167	9	0

Emcee: Q.	Type: Unmoderated

Introduction Compact

A common technical indicator for the direction of the future direction of the stock market is investor sentiment. It is actually a contrarian indicator: the more bullish investors are, the less likely the stock market is to go up, and vice versa.

There are a number of sentiment surveys that are constantly updated -- four that are published in Barrons each week, and another that appears here on SI at techstocks.com

I have downloaded data from the AAII survey going back to 1987, and backtested various schemes against the S&P 500, and found that can attain a significantly higher portfolio return by getting out of the market when the percentage of bulls exceeds 55%, when averaged over two weeks, and remain out of the market for 12 weeks until that 55% bullish condition disappears.

Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):

Reply	Message Preview	From	Recs	Posted
167	Barrons: MARCH 5, 2001 Survey Says A drop in bullish sentiment may signal an im	Q.	-	3/5/2001
166	990409 36% (BULL) 26% (BEAR), 38% (NEUTRAL). 990401 DJIA 10173 990401 S&am	kx	-	4/11/1999
165	990401 40% (BULL) 25% (BEAR), 35% (NEUTRAL). 990401 DJIA 9832.5 9904	kx	-	4/2/1999
164	Correction: 990326 38% (BULL) 29% (BEAR), 33% (NEUTRAL).	kx	-	3/28/1999
163	990319 38% (BULL) 29% (BEAR), 33% (NEUTRAL). The bulls drop from 48% to 38% an	kx	-	3/27/1999
162	990319 48% (BULL) 21% (BEAR), 31% (NEUTRAL). The bullish sentiment has a big ju	kx	-	3/20/1999
161	Short term trend is side-way. Exit all long positions. Short term trend side-w	kx	-	3/17/1999
160	990312 37% (BULL) 21% (BEAR), 42% (NEUTRAL). There is a little increase in the	kx	-	3/12/1999
159	VIX really does seem to have predicted the trend change--up to range-bound--fro	dospesos	-	3/10/1999
158	Corrections: 990305 37% (BULL) 19% (BEAR), 45% (NEUTRAL). The short term signal	kx	-	3/7/1999
157	990226 37% (BULL) 24% (BEAR), 39% (NEUTRAL). No change from last week. Hopeful	kx	-	2/26/1999
156	990219 37% (BULL) 24% (BEAR), 39% (NEUTRAL) The bullish market sentiment is no	kx	-	2/19/1999
155	I think there is a screw up in Barron newspaper for the AAII survey last week.	kx	-	2/17/1999
154	Correction: 990205 48% (BULL) 38% (BEAR), 14% (NEUTRAL). The bear increases fro	kx	-	2/9/1999
153	990205 48% (BULL), 17% (BEAR), 35% (NEUTRAL). There is not much change between	kx	-	2/7/1999
152	KX, sentiment surveys are useful indicators only in the fairly rare instances t	Q.	-	2/1/1999
151	990201,47 (BULL) ,20 (BEAR) ,33 (NEUTRAL). The bullish survey drops from 56 to	kx	-	2/1/1999
150	Thanks very much for all the AAII data. Everyone has his or her favorite put/c	dospesos	-	1/28/1999
149	KX, you can download all the AAII data since 1987 if you have an AOL account. G	Q.	-	1/27/1999
148	Hi John, thank you for the data that you have provided. From now on, if I want	kx	-	1/27/1999
147	Below are the AAII survey data, updated last week. I cut out the middle part o	Q.	-	1/26/1999
146	VIX is giving an indication contrary to the sentiment surveys. The VIX is high,	Q.	-	1/26/1999
145	Hi John, Do you have the complete AAII sentiment survey data ? If you have, pl	kx	-	1/21/1999
144	Vix continues to make higher swing lows since 23 December. It's possible th	dospesos	-	1/20/1999
143	When VIX went over 35 yesterday, it indicated a bottom. Which in fact materiali	Q.	-	1/15/1999

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