Bubble of 2000 - How will you call the bottom?

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes
Bubble of 2000 - How will you call the bottom?

An SI Board Since September 2001

Posts	SubjectMarks	Bans
8	1	0

Emcee: rolatzi	Type: Moderated

Introduction Compact

How will you determine that the bottom has been reached.
This group is dedicated to the stock market bottom of the
first decade of the present millenium.

Some thoughts on how to determine the bottom include:

1. Bubbles all unwind in similar ways. Watch the comparison between
1929 DJ and 2000 NASDAQ. See: lowrisk.com.
3. It has been suggested that a 5 year low in the stock average combined
with a 15 month lows in short and long term interest rates signals the bottom.
3. Since profits generally disappear during recessions, the price sales ratio
might be a better way to access value in stocks. What is the (P/S) now and
how cheap do stocks get on this basis?
4. Do you look at trading volume as an indicator of interest?
Stocks will continue to drop on low volume if there is no buying.
Will the bottom occur when volume dries up and the price refuses to drop any further?
5. How reliable is the put-call ratio, the Trin Indicator and the VIX as
short term overbought or oversold indicators. While they may give short term
turns in the market, are they useful for predicting the top or bottom of major turns?
6. I like to use the crossing of the daily chart with the 50d and 200d MA
as buy and sell signals. It has been pretty reliable in this past market. -
7. How reliable is the book to bill ratio for semi's. It is said that semi's
are a buy when booking increases 2 months in a row.

These are some of the indicators that I look at. Which do you look at? How soon do you think there will be a bottom (this year, next year or later?)and how will you know it?

Rolatzi

Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):

Reply	Message Preview	From	Recs	Posted
8	The VIX is presently in the upper 40's. I won't touch this market until	rolatzi	-	9/19/2001
7	Maybe the market has already turned. Today sure looks like it is shaping up to b	joseph krinsky	-	9/11/2001
6	Article on relationship between tops in VIX and bottoms in the market bearforu	rolatzi	-	9/10/2001
5	He may be right, who knows? My prediction for the bottom is that it will be whe	joseph krinsky	-	9/10/2001
4	I just listened to Don Coxe's weekly commentary and he suggested the followi	rolatzi	-	9/9/2001
3	The problem with using past explanations is that they are past explanations. Eve	joseph krinsky	-	9/8/2001
2	The pretty blue line S&P 480 is a place to aim for decisionpoint.com	Gut Trader	-	9/7/2001
1	Bottoms and tops are called after they happen, and then they go back and use the	joseph krinsky	-	9/7/2001

Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):