Hi CB, <<"If you think you understand it, that only shows you don't know the first thing about it.">>
I will focus my attention on “understanding” first, as I had posted much on the subject in the past, stating in so many ways that I do not understand “it”. I will hold to my statements …
Message 14869036
“Well, I do not understand the process, and I tend to shy away from what I do not understand.”
Message 14869886
“We only fear things we do not understand”
Message 15410107
“We will soon reach full understanding of the full extent of the damage.”
Message 15481977
“Grossman's Misquote: Complex problems have simple, easy to understand wrong answers”
Message 15700670
“We particularly like things we do not understand, but try fitting them into a familiar frame of reference. For example, I have Putumayo’s “Cape Verde” CD playing now, and the first piece is by Ana Firmino with Tito Paris “chico malandro”. Do not understand a single word of the song, but never mind, my head is instinctively bopping around and round, and my body is going spastic, as would my cousins in Cape Verde, as I click on the PC keyboard. My wife has to put up much on Sundays”
Message 15731779
“One day, I asked my mom whether we could cover two chapters and was refused. My mom tells me now that I reached for the books the next day and started reading on my own, unable to pronounce each character, but able to understand the general meaning”
Message 15774371
“Understand that I post for fun, but invest to increase my NAV so that I can have a higher quality of fun, and afford a bit of speculation”
Message 15813707
“understanding that (virtual or real) machines can fail … This explanation can be used to understand Japan as well”
Message 16051585
“There is much I do not understand about the current global economic situation, because what seems like normal economic common sense is being skewed quite severely by two New Ec Tech machines, namely information and financial engineering. These two machines, like all machines, are able to leverage ordinary human acts to extraordinary effects”
Message 16076853
“The choice is ours to make, explanation to others is not needed, and consequence is ours to bear, alone with our families. No blames, no tears, and no leaving the game where we did not make the rules and no longer understand the logic”
Message 16086949
“Well, we all spend a lot of time on trying to understand the issues, because the stakes are high, and we are worried, whether we are in the equity market or not, and because we will all lose in some fashion if the butterfly fluttered for a good reason. If we are not worried, we do not have a large enough stake at the stake”
Message 16091966
“On the matter of <<money is ... electricity>>. I can picture this scheme of modeling, because I understand electrical systems”
Message 16153454
“We ‘Hongkongers’ really do understand and appreciate the value of freedom, and the cost of big government. While we are not prepared to die to defend our freedoms (no point dying), we are prepared to vote with our feet and NAV at a moment’s notice. Everyday is an election day, and every dollar is a vote. Given the number of big capitalists concentrated in a few square kilometers of central business district, some voters really matter to the politicians”
Message 16170724
“Revolution first, understanding next, then finally, a new order”
Message 16216750
“I am in fact not watching a list of Conv because I do not understand them, can not price them, and thus not comfortable. They are not exactly equity and not exactly bonds, and while I know CFOs find them useful, I prefer to mostly remain a buyer of equity and bond.”
I will next focus on <<Heidelberg Uncertainty Principle and Schroedinger's Cat>> …
Message 14861804
“Uncertainty, not the hope for gain, but the despair of impending loss, will drive people in and outside of the US to the metals, to farm land, and to Philippine private islands, or to some other store of value. The US Dollar, facing a population so firmly believing in a surplus and so intent on electing politicians to spend the surplus, simply does not offer comfort to folks with a choice. Depending on the failings of the Japanese and Europeans to maintain the purchasing value of the Dollar is not wise for the offshore investor, especially as US assets starts to go down, threatening to drag down the more leveraged participants, starting with Lucent, Cisco, and possibly ending with Citicorp, once again”
Message 15404788
“Uncertainty + Fear = Hold + Tight”
Message 15953490
“the fog of uncertainty soon to be burned through by honest rays of sun”
Logically, now I focusing on “history” …
Message 14861804
“The quote "History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes" should give pause to our retirement planning with assumptions anchored on recent experiences. We are now entering a period of outlying events”
Message 15406647
“But, slowly, slowly and ever so slowly. Never be in a hurry to lose money. We simply do not know the future, and so far, again and again, we have shown ourselves to be lacking in imagination.”
“I have always wanted to watch history up close and personal, and here now is our chance of several life times.”
Message 15499316
“History is not a news clip on CNN”
“History is a connected whole, not a series of discrete events.”
“Wrong. In summary, the world is connected, alive, complicated, unpredictable, and always on the verge of undiscovered disasters. We are at a critical juncture now, where we must make a judgment on risk vs. reward, based on all that we have learned, starting with the physical laws, mathematical constructs, probabilities, thermodynamics, random motion, and psychology. The road ahead is not clear, the dangers fatal. We can call on history to guide us, and history did not end in 1992.”
Message 15499317
“Day turns to night in minutes, especially during winter. Business cycles have existed for all of recorded history, and so are we the lucky generation to witness the cycle’s demise? No need to hang around outside until the sunset. Go home right now”
Message 15591228
“The business cycle is also unavoidable, especially in the context of bubble blowup. Many think we in the 1990s have discovered what others failed to for all of recorded history. I believe the beliefs are wrong.”
Message 15953490
“I have an observation. No single event caused any of the cataclysmic financial events in recorded history. This is why ‘the cause’ has always been controversial, the facts inevitably debatable, the prevention never clear, and the occurrences episodic, as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow.”
I do not have much to say about <<predicted>>, except to say …
(a) Message 16640102
(b) Message 16640110
I have been right and wrong, and I will continue to be right and wrong. Given that I am overall up by around 8% so far this year with little perturbation, volatility or otherwise scary moments, I am OK with staying the course dictated not by what CNBC and officialdom wants me to believe, not by what MeDroogies reading of the numbers and stats, and not by my interpretation of any historic period, but by simple survival instinct, as in “something is not computing”.
<<Well, actually I predicted that gearing up for war and various stimuli would keep the economy, and the market from cratering.>>
and if these measures do not work, which I feel are not out of the question in an era of outlying events, the ensuing cataclysm will be truly spectacular; and if the monetary and fiscal measures do work, all the better. Either way, my position, allocation, and willingness to make rapid moves when necessary, prepares me for all eventualities. In the meantime, I am buying very little, akin to a sniper concealed in the hills, looking down at the commotion in the tsunami-prone village.
<<housing market - mortgage rates … interest rates … Gasoline prices … fall of Kabul ... foot and mouth disease … don't seem to be any more anthrax letters>>
I tend not to read too much into the latest news headlines, nor do I ever wear the latest fashion (in fact, I always wear Timberland and Lands End), and events can be interpreted in too many ways at the moment for me to willingly march down that hilltop hideout, rifle not at the ready.
.
<<I am cautiously optimistic>>
Is that cautious optimism high enough to make a difference in your allocation? If not, then I believe my recent foray into Global Crossing and NTL bonds puts my optimism index higher than yours. If yes, I advise more caution and less optimism.
<<The US economy, like the world economy, is huge. One bad event in one sector isn't enough to derail it.>>
I do not look at the current economic and market conditions as one or even a series of bad events in one or a group of sectors, but as in the well of funding has been poisoned, and the electrical system has a mishmash aggregate of incompatible sub-systems, juiced by the FED, with the charges building up in faulty capacitors, ready to go kaboom at some triggering perturbation(s).
Chugs, Jay |
