isopatch, WEATHER UPDATE
Now seeing on 15 day forecasts (accuweather) the "Currier & Ives" holiday period that I mentioned back on October 29 (see last line).
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The last 10-11 days of the year are forecast to be very cold. The forecast is of course centered in my forecast area of PA, with MidAtlantic and New England also to be effected.
I also forecast a large snow storm around the holiday period with the most likely date 12-31. To flesh that out a bit, fine tuning from current conditions, consider that a ten day period with the center on 12-31.
The winter has certainly been colder than normal and with greater than normal snowfall so far.
So the winter forecast is holding together very well, the El Nino is being bandied about as the cause of all the recent weather happenings, no matter if warmer or colder than normal, a bureaucratic scapegoat, ggg. Joe Bastardi has been going on a rant about this El Nino Fascination (and the convenience thereof) in the past week and correctly so. Forecasts for popular consumption are over emphasizing this still weak El Nino while ignoring the other factors that are over powering it such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, PDO, etc.
Joe's been hot this year and good for him, he deserves it I think he's great and talented.
As for myself, with my hex signs and natural indicators, I couldn't be happier.
For a little guy like me, making calls AGAINST the establishment long range forecasts and winning,
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(if you will remember, the NWS and Climate Prediction Center were all calling for a warmer than normal with precip slightly below to normal back in Sept/Oct)
is more than a little gratifying! Especially since my forecasts predated all others I know about!
How is the rest of the winter shaping up?
We will end the winter with below normal temperature averages in my forecast area.
Snow fall will be above normal.
Tuning up my winter forecast for the second half of winter, I will reduce the thaw periods to one coming in January after the holiday cold spell. This is in the sense that if you have a thaw you expect it to get colder afterwards (see second thaw below). I expect it to be a
warming only to the area of normal temps. Say a period of 5-10 days with temps averaging within 3 degrees of normal and I am leaning toward the shorter time frame of 5 days.
Then my most recent finesse with the analog years and natural indicators has us going back into the deep freeze for an extended period.
Quite likely to extend well into February.
The tricky part is the end of winter. Will El Nino strengthen to the point where its warming influence
overcomes the cold generating factors? I am leaning toward this possibility and so this is how that would work out. If this is correct the winter will not drag out into spring, we will have a sudden return to normal temps or higher in March. (Wouldn't it be great for NG to have a cold winter then a hot spring, though I won't go that far yet??)
So second thaw I predicted back in the fall will come toward the end of February and will be the end of the winter blitz.
There is a fly in the ointment with that second, now last, "thaw", in that there is also a chance for a large late season snow storm either just before or just after the end of February thaw. Kind of a parting shot from what will be a memorable winter. Probabilities are not high, but they are there, so I thought I would mention that possible late season storm.
Finally, the deep freeze period of January into February could be drier than normal, but precipitation received is likely to be snow (not always a sure thing in my area, it often warms up to rain and then goes back to cold). That factor plus the large storm predicted and the possible late season storm will put snow totals over normal.
Best I can do for now, my natural indicators are stretched going this far out, but I have a reasonable confidence level on the second half forecast, though not as high as the first half. My largest worry is the call for the cold period January into February to be dry. My analog is in disagreement with my natural indicators, so I could be wrong on that. If so, we would have much above normal snowfall for the winter.
Best Regards,
Roebear |
