To: Brooks Jackson who wrote (8386 ) 7/25/1999 12:36:00 PM From: David H. Zimmer Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 20297
Brooks, the key is deposit dollars. Traditional brick and mortar banking institutions set up their individual functioning entities as profit centers. That is how people are paid, especially with respect to annual bonus payments. As such, most I have met within the industry, and those that consult to the industry suggest that this mold must first be broken before the traditional brick and mortar dwellers make it into the 21st century. In my estimation, most will not make it with consolidation being their ticket out. A couple months ago I reported that CKFR makes little to nothing on bill presentment. That fact suggests that billers, the true source of the inventory that drives CKFR's function, are willing to pay the printer and the postal service but are also cave dwellers when it comes to realizing what the future holds. In as much as the billers will have to pay someone someday, when a greater number of bills are presented via the web, I would expect payment for presentment of those bills that are paid will come to fruition. That day is not far off as the rush to EBPP is apparent. In addition, where I believe the billers are missing the boat is the ancillary benefits available to them through CKFR's 3.0 platform. I truly believe the primary benefits of bill presentment are (1) the ability of the biller to remedy problems, inappropriate charges, more effectively and efficiently; (2) interactivity capabilities with their respective customers; and (3) the auxiliary selling of promotional items, i.e., pop-ups which appear when you click to pay. I find it hard to believe that any biller would not be interested in paying for this service inclusive of savings in mailing, customer service and additional sales. CKFR's engine is ready and being primed as we speak. They are light years ahead of others and, when it comes to the complex maze of interactivity, none compare. They will undoubtedly capture their share of the maturing market and produce revenues which drive their model with contribution coming from all sides. As such, I am long the stock without question and will continue to accumulate shares on intraday dips. The only question that remains to be answered is what the quarterly write-offs will be due to their outage, I have heard three to four cents per share, and what the costs of the failed secondary will be. I expect that CKFR's management will look to offset these charges with the sale of some shares in the open marketplace, shares that were repurchased at $6 per share. As stated before, if CKFR logs approximately 2.9 million customers as of the end of June, operating earnings will exceed the five cent estimate. We will soon know but with respect to their gameplan, they are well entrenched with the long term benefits soon to follow. About a month ago I purchased a significant number of shares of NXTL when the WCOM takeover rumor dissipated. It was always my belief that NXTL had the best product in its field, with the best growth related gameplan and superior support staff. As such, I was more interested in the stock if they went it alone. I was right. The same scenario is in place with CKFR but given the roll-up in this industry hs yet to begin, the potential of an INTU, IBM, HWP or other similar combination has merit and simply adds power to the upcoming upside. Continue to enjoy your weekend and as always, nice to hear your voice on this thread.