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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (28167)	8/13/1999 3:39:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

<OT> t2K - this is a relief rally, and there will most likely be a retest of some lows next week. However, I expect this to be rather temporary. I expect, later in the week the rally to resume. Then, just before the FOMC, another sell off. After the FOMC I expect some kind of pop, and this part I'm not clear on... I can't determine at that point whether it will be a strong longish rally, or a very brief pop. In any case, I expect further declines going into OCT. In shorting, I assume you are counting on the sell-off early next week (probably starting Monday after a brief morning pop up). It is my opinion, that the sell-off will be brief. I therefore do not want to be short going into the weekend. If Monday looks ugly, I can always short the morning pop. I would be very careful shorting INTC - all semis seem to be untouchable - upgrades, expectations etc. So, in general, I would not short. Further, I am not even going to short DELL or Hewlett - a lot of stuff is factored in - a lot of people expect them to tank after earnings, and that makes me nervous. In general, I actually don't see much percentage in going heavily short at this point (select issues excepted) - IMO, there is more $ to be made on the long side. Personally I've been playing JNPR and RHAT heavily. I'm not saying these won't experience down days - but to me this is a no-brainer - these stock are headed higher in the intermediate term. So why do I want to tie up $ on uncertain shorts with all the dangers of snapbacks? In this time frame, I don't want to be short. Morgan

To: t2 who wrote (28167)	8/13/1999 3:49:00 PM
From: Teflon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

T2K, you're out of control, buddy!!!!! Simple question for you my friend, why focus on shorting the Market after the NASDAQ has corrected 15%, when its probably a better idea when its setting new highs??? Teflon

To: t2 who wrote (28167)	8/13/1999 8:36:00 PM
From: taxman	Respond to of 74651

"shorting Dell" i think dell will beat the street and rise in price. why do you think it's a short? regards

To: t2 who wrote (28167)	8/13/1999 9:58:00 PM
From: D. Swiss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Tech2000, let me save you some money, never bet against Michael Dell. If that is not persuasive enough, Dan Niles of BBRS (who has been known to get company leaks) upgraded it on Monday. Don't become a kamikaze pilot! :o) Drew

To: t2 who wrote (28167)	8/14/1999 3:33:00 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

>> what do think of shorting Dell and Hewlett going into their earnings next week. t2k, I have to second Drew's comments. Dell may be about to break out of a channel it has traded in since February. That's a long time for a great momentum stock like dell to base, and if they beat revenue expectations, as Dan Niles is predicting, they could rocket into the mid 50s. If they miss, the downside is the mid 30s. So at 41 7/16 the risk/reward ratio doesn't favor the shorts. imo, shorting dell would be about as judicious as shorting Mr. Softee going into earnings. Frank