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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Runner who wrote (8617)	9/11/1999 8:43:00 AM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Runner-- When I read things like this re: foreign banking and securities: cnn.com and this re: foreign transportation: dailynews.yahoo.com ft.com and then this re: global interdependencies: usia.gov of course the global economic implications become hard to ignore. As I've said before we could all be warm and snug in our beds with plenty of hot water for our morning showers the morning of 01/01/00 and this could still be a disaster. I've been keeping a close eye on oil and chemical industry reports which I feel are important clues, but it is difficult to get timely information. For example, the iea.org website has not been updated with the August Working Paper survey on the oil industry. (I've emailed them twice now asking that the site be updated.) If I recall correctly the larger chemical industry is responsible for 10-15% of gross global product? The oil industry may be in the same percentage ballpark if not higher. (Any help here with percentages appreciated.) So problems in one or both of these industries could spell big trouble. And of course the U.S. is highly dependent on foreign suppliers for both chemicals and oil. There is no strategic chemical reserve. The CIA is so concerned that so much of basic chemical processing has moved abroad that it organized a standing committee to monitor the situation. Even if the grid, telecom, banking and other key systems stay up and reliable here in the U.S. foreign based supply line and JIT problems could cause problems weeks and months down the road. What will those problems do to GDP and the unemployment rate? As our good friends at the State Department noted: "Since we live in an interdependent world, lagging Y2K preparations in other parts of the world can affect our national interests. While the United States has taken the lead in preparing for the Y2K rollover, we cannot afford to merely hope that the rest of the world is ready too" In regards to the questions you posted: >>>How do you feel now? More concerned than before. >>>Is there a storm coming? Yes. >>>Or are you reassured? Not by any information I've seen on the global economic issues.

To: Runner who wrote (8617)	9/11/1999 3:42:00 PM
From: B.K.Myers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

Runner, These positive Y2K press releases have me very concerned. Remember, only "mission critical" systems are being repaired. From what I have seen, mid/upper management is becoming less concerned with Y2K as their "mission critical" systems are being fixed for Y2K, and they are forgetting that they have NOT fixed ALL of their systems. For example, my current client, a major international long distance telecommunication company, is almost done with their Y2K time machine testing (the final phase of our Y2K project). But, just last Thursday we realized that we missed two major systems. One of these systems is the interface between the mainframe computer, where we keep our client data, and the engineering department, which controls the telecommunication switches. This system was originally deemed to by Y2K compliant and hence, not repaired. We have now discovered that it is not Y2K compliant and must be fixed. This is not a big deal, but I'm glad we caught it now and not after 1/1/2000. We also noticed that our "trouble ticket" system is not Y2K compliant. The trouble ticket system resides in a set of software that mid management had decided was not mission critical and that we would risk it in Y2K (i.e. Fix on Failure). From the company's standpoint, this is not a mission critical system? we will still be able to provide access to phone lines, but it will be a problem from the standpoint of tracking customer problems. Last week I went to a Morgan, Stanley, Dean Witter Y2K investment seminar. I was very disappointed in some or their comments. For example, they stated that the electric power grid had been tested. This is not true. Individual power plants have had successful Y2K tests, but the grid itself has not been tested. They also stated that the federal government was now 97.3% Y2K compliant. Again, they seem to forget that only systems that were defined as "mission critical" have been fixed and that these reports are, for the most part, self-reporting, not independently verified and validated. So, my biggest concern about all of these positive statements is "What have we missed". If we missed any critical embedded systems in our inventory and/or assessment phases, the repercussion could be catastrophic. I hope this isn't the case. I know that we have missed as lot of systems in our application/systems software. I hope that we have identified and repaired the major systems, but I have a nagging doubt that our initial inventory/assessments might have been a bit short sighted. I am expecting a multitude of problems in this area. Although I do believe that many of these remaining problems will be fixed in the first few days/weeks after they fail, I'm afraid some may take months before they are fixed. The ripple effect of these failures probably won't be fully realized until next summer or fall. For the past few months, I have found myself flipping between being a concerned "Polly" and a frightened "doomer". It's not the current rate of progress that concerns me, it's "What have we missed". B.K.

To: Runner who wrote (8617)	9/11/1999 6:50:00 PM
From: bearcub	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

deductive reasoning/logic still dictates/concludes a massive, interconnected cascading failure upon our suspecting as well as unsuspecting heads in just a little over 100 days. therefore, count us among the Y2K prepared and preparing like mad, populace. the sheer willpower Janelle and i exert to stay: vigilant, focused and continuing to prepare regularly reassessing our 'readiness' is truly herculean. how the end of the world crowd/cult manages to keep their faithful in line through literally decades let alone eons of pre/mid/post-tribulation fearful Christianity, consisting of wearying fear and catastrophic messages is beyond our comprehension. getting ready for the real chaos ahead is bone chilling and bone wearying enough for me/mine/ours. all the best to you and yours.

To: Runner who wrote (8617)	9/11/1999 9:01:00 PM
From: daffodil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Runner, I think that my feelings about preparedness must be very similar to yours. I have simply made a personal decision that I couldn't bear the anxiety I would have if I had to wonder whether I was going to have to spend a few nights in the high school gym with 500 other people coughing ... The steps I have taken have involved almost no "extra" expense ... saving empty water jugs so that they can be filled with tap water; buying extra tuna, baked beans, rice, kitty litter, and so on. As I have posted on this thread before, if I end up in March or so with a trunk full of canned goods en route to the local food bank, I will be thrilled. If I donate my unused Coleman battery op lanterns to the church youth group for their camping trips, I will be thrilled. The rotary phone that I bought for $12 (including shipping) on ebay is, I agree, a waste if not needed. So is possibly the cheap battery op radio I bought, but I'm sure the teenager next door can always use an extra for the beach! Okay, I admit that the wood stove I installed may be an extravagance. Vermont Castings, designer enamel, gorgeous! But the truth is that I hated my fireplace and hadn't used it for years, while I love the new wood stove and will use it frequently! And my 2 cords of wood were a gift from a friend. My senior citizen mother-in-law knows that if her power goes off, she can simply walk to my house. My neighbors on both sides know that they're welcome to sleep, cook, and relax at my wood stove. The peace of mind that these preparations give me is, to me, invaluable. Oh! And did you know that Cheeky and kholt are going to be here too? <g> }=>--------->>>>

To: Runner who wrote (8617)	9/12/1999 10:27:00 AM
From: Lane3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

>>How do you feel now? Is there a storm coming? Or are you reassured?<>< Yesterday I read an article about a trend emerging from Y2K surveys that shows people becoming less worried over time, just as you mentioned was occurring with your friends. >>A new USA TODAY/National Science Foundation poll found fewer and fewer Americans expect major problems due to Year 2000 computer glitches. Only 7% expect their personal lives to be disrupted in a major way, while 40% expect no problems at all. Last December, 14% expected major problems, and 30% expected no problems at all.<>< usatoday.com Since I am of the view that the single greatest risk we face is overreaction/panic, I find the change of attitude very good news indeed. Of course, public opinion can change on a dime, still, for now I am reassured. I understand, though, that others who see the risks differently will find this trend discouraging. Karen >

To: Runner who wrote (8617)	9/12/1999 1:27:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

Yesterday I had a wood stove installed for a backup and my wife asked me not to tell anyone why. Hang in there Runner... Do what you feel you need to do in order to feel that you're ready for anything that could threaten your family. The key is to do it without feeling a sense of panic, and in proportion to the efforts you would take for any other natural/man-made disaster. This is what we tell people... We aren't sure about Y2K. We're not getting freaked out over it, but we figure that anything we accumulate will be what we would need to have during any kind of storm. Besides, wood burning stoves are chic... :0) But Coal gives you more heat per pound. Regards, Ron