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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LemonHead who wrote (9476)	12/5/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: Jack Jagernauth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Keith, same here; I found the basket of stocks discussion very interesting from the point of view of spreading investment capital around, and AIMing a basket of stocks in a particular sector so that, hopefully, one of five stocks in the basket might be a real gusher. I am curious about a couple of things: 1. What would be the problem with AIMing a basket of stocks from different sectors? Why wouldn't that work as well? 2. Let's say one were to track the individual stocks (making up the basket) in a separate Newport directory, take the total market value of the stocks in any given week, and divide by, say, 1000 shares to get a NAV for the basket. When one gets a sell signal and sells off shares of the stock that has gained the most, that sale might represent a significant percentage of shares owned in that one particular stock. I wonder how that might affect further tracking of that individual stock in the separate Newport directory, since it would be somewhat like taking capital out of an AIM account for that individual stock, because it is a huge sale in percentage terms. Does this make sense, or am I dreaming about ghosts? Regards, Jack

To: LemonHead who wrote (9476)	12/14/1999 6:43:00 PM
From: fuzzymath	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18928

Is there a January Effect? Well, maybe a November-January Effect is more like it. Thanks for the invite, LemonHead. This sounds like an interesting forum. What I did was simply tabulate the monthly percent gains for the NYSE Index from 1969 through 1998, and made a bar graph of the average gain over the 30 year period for each month. The study indicates that more than 50% of the market's total annual gains have come in the November through January period over the course of the 30 years. The report's available at mathematicalanalysis.com for anyone who's interested. As for credentials: as my profile says, I've done lots of mathematical modeling in my past work in the Defense industry. I'm now in the financial industry writing portfolio analysis and performance evaluation software. All my models use end-of-day prices. I'll write more soon--right now my web site has been thrown into disarray by my web server provider, so I'm trying to straighten that out. By the way, all my models say today was a pivotal day--and that now both bonds and stocks are quite vulnerable to further near-term selling. If it wasn't December, I'd be out of the market. But the upward force at this time of year has been quite strong historically, so I'm still in, fully invested in FDEGX, my favorite mutual fund. Kevin Farnham