Howdy jmootx,
I've been following this thread for the last several weeks and noticed your several recent posts. Your post advising
people to sell the rallies, I rejected out of hand as the typical gloom and doom I found saturating this thread. But as your post inspired several replies and obviously stimulated
some thinking, I must concede that your post was in that
respect, good. I checked out your previous posts, as you
recommend, and find your thinking confused at best.
Your first post was a letter or reply you obtained from
a Mr. Kudlow. The message was basicly a defense of stock
valuations as not over-priced, but priced with Growth rates
and technology boom in mind. The letter was rather bullish
and I thought, interesting. In another post, you mention yourself as a mid-cap growth investor. By definition, I
figured you to be somewhat bullish as I would expect a Bear
to be more value oriented, rather than Growth.
A week later, another interesting post illustrating the obvious similarities between the 1929 crash and the current
correction (ended or ending according to my perception).
Then another post referring to the possible Back Monday that
was coming (didn't happen, did it?). At least I want to thank
you for not being the idiot who said BLACK MONDAY COMES.
Your next message proclaims the individual has a disease
followed by your now famous "bubble bubble, boil and trouble"
speech. I was pretty much happy to pass over your rantings and continue on my own path when I read the critical response
today that you responded to in such an interesting way.
When confronted by your negative views, you advised the criticizer to study the market as it exists....
I'm sorry but I just can't hold back anymore.
First of all, how did you change from a bull to a bear so damn fast? Second, although the 1929 comparison was interesting, it is important to realize that this is NOT 1929. There are so many differences between then and now, I just don't know where to start... I guess the most important
factor is that in this, the computer age, investors are far
more informed and therefore better equipped to deal with the
adversity and games that are played in the marketplace. If you really want to study the market as it exists, maybe you
should start by stop pretending that this is 1929, revisited.
As far as the "bubble", that is certainly debatable and perhaps even called into question by your post from Mr. Kudlow. For a moment, let's say you are right and that it
is real and now. OK. No problem. Except that you are so smart
you can apparently foretell WHEN that bubble will burst and hence advise people to take their money and run. I am not that smart. In fact, I am so stupid, I actually had the audacity to increase my portfolio 100% last year and another
100% (so far) this year by buying low and selling high, in the face of a gigantic BUBBLE. What a speculator I must be...
Oh, by the way, what if the bubble doesn't burst right yet?
What if it doesn't happen until much later this year? What
if it doesn't happen until next year, or the year 2008? What
if the market simply keeps doing what it does, goes up, goes
down, goes up, down, up...? Maybe I should forget about technical analysis, charts, recalling the current economic
climate(boom). After all, it's one big bubble and will undoubted blow up in my face. YOU have spoken...
Getting away from the sarcasm for a moment, I would like to
mention that when I look at a long-term chart of the NAZ, one
can see a clear parabolic rise leading us to the present. If
one draws a curve following the lows upward, I don't believe the current correction has even broken the present uptrend (again from a long-term view). It is entirely conceivable to
me that this correction is only a rest before further stratospheric gains to come. I don't count on it, but I don't
preclude it either. I will simply continue to let the market
do the talking on the charts, buy when you bears are growling
the most, sell when you guys crawl back in your caves for
hibernation. Isn't it funny how bulls are most bullish at the tops and bears most bearish at the bottoms? The key is not to get sucked in by the hype. Buy low, sell high. Or -
sell high, then buy low. That's what affects the bottom line
of my portfolio, not bubble talk...
Short-term, the recent rally has violated the upper recent
downtrend line. That is a buy signal in my book. As far as the lack of volume, I would expect that to pick up when recently battered investors peek out into the sunlight. Yeah,
there is sunlight out there.
Sincerely,
Eichler |
