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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (126)	5/28/2000 12:31:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 276

Zeev, you may well be right about me being overly optimistic. RE 300mm: the Infineon testbed has had yields allowing better productivity than 200mm for about a year now. However, I agree that the ramp to full volume production by most of the leaders is not going to happen within the next 2 years. Yet the money will still be spent on Capital Equipment even though an immediate return isn't expected for each chipmakers first 300mm fab. While the capacity builds, technology moves and 300mm migration is underway, I wouldn't be surprised to see Capital equipment spending trend well above the norm for a year or 2. And as I mentioned in an early note [to you???], many chipmakers still have empty shells just sitting there waiting for equipment. This should permit a higher percentage of CapEx to go directly to the Equipment companies. All the same, if there's a recession or some other event that allows capacity to catch up with or surpass chip demand prior to 300mm migration, it's conceivable that we've already seen the cycle highs. I doubt it, but it's conceivable. And on that cheery note, it's time for bed. Enjoy your weekend, Ian.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (126)	5/28/2000 11:33:00 AM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 276

Zeev: <<You got to face the fact that the most optimistic estimates of total chip shipments this year are under $200 B and 2001 may see an absolute best case of $230 B...>> Sorry to crash your sobriety fest (g). Others think your 'best case' for 2001 is approximate to (give or take 10 bill) current year estimates: semiconductoronline.com{9D43261D-3193-11D4-8C3D-009027DE0829}&Bucket=HomeLatestHeadlines Dataquest: Semiconductor Revenue Increases to $222 Billion 5/25/2000 Worldwide semiconductor revenue is forecast to increase 31% to $222 billion in 2000, according to Dataquest Inc. The company believes that the revenue will come from the industry?s memory segment. Last year, the market grew 22%, and it?s expected to be nearly $320 billion in 2004. For short-term growth, Dataquest believes that revenue will come from the dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) market, where it is supposed to grow from $23.1 billion in 1999 to $76 billion in 2002. Analysts predict that the market will decline at the end of 2002, but in the meantime the semiconductor industry will experience double-digit growth. ?In mid-2002, we expect the DRAM market to become oversupplied, leading to price declines in DRAM,? said Joseph Byrne, senior analyst for Dataquest?s Semiconductor Worldwide program. ?Within the following 12 months, we project the foundry market will also become oversupplied, triggering soft prices across a range of semiconductor products.? The Dataquest Semiconductor Worldwide program combines a global industry view of memory, microcomponent, logic/ASIC, analog, discrete and optical device segments.