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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54789)	6/20/2000 11:18:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, there are plenty of energy resources if the price is right. Remember the SUN is the main source and there are many ways to capitalise on the SUN energy arriving on earth. Wind, Solar Pounds, Algee and Biomass, ect. But first constrain and energy conservation laws must be put in place in the Western World. BWDIK Haim

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54789)	6/20/2000 11:31:00 PM
From: Sweet Ol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

A couple of points to consider. First off, for the last 50 years I have been hearing people predict that we were just 20 years away from running out of oil. These predictions are updated annually and are pretty much the same. Secondly, the point that the "last field has been found" has always been made after each field was found, starting over 100 years ago. How do you know which is the "last" one? Actually, there have been a number of fairly large fields found since Prudhoe Bay, including the recent finds in the Caspian Sea area where we don't have enough information to size the reserves. There is a lot more untapped reserves in Russia, Africa, China and even the Middle East that are not being considered for political reasons. Forty or Fifty dollar oil will solve a lot of political problems. The primary production phase of an oil field only produces 30% - 50% of the recoverable oil. Secondary and tertiary production recovers more total oil, but it takes a lot longer. The middle east, North Slope and North Sea fields are not yet into the secondary production stage. There is a lot more oil there, it just doesn't come out as fast and as cheaply. Having said all this, I think the oil situation is serious, and we are going to have to make some tough decisions, but I think your time horizons are too short. Expect price increases, but on an inflation adjusted basis over the last 25 years, $35-$40 is about where oil should be priced. $40 oil will create some pain, but it will not cause a world-wide depression. Best to all, JH

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54789)	6/20/2000 11:45:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I do agree with the conservation approach. It just makes too much sense to not waste, from an economic standpoint as well as an environmental one. Also, I do not doubt that easy to obtain large deposits are tapped. I'm more skeptical about the notion that the worlds total supply is rather short. I do, however, see the relevance of energy cost to obtain further supplies. Be that as it may, I do not believe I have "blind faith that technology will be able to solve this problem". I have done a fair amount of research on the state of alternative energy, I concluded that the feasability of addressing the worlds energy needs through alternative sources will fall within viable timelines. Obviously, I can not prove this but, I am comfortable with the rate of progress in that area. I do foresee a day, in the not too distant future, when photovoltaics provide a green source of energy converting H2O into H2 and O2 via the energy of free sunlight. The H2 will be utilized in fuel cells and electrochemically converted back into H2O and energy cleanly!

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54789)	6/21/2000 1:00:00 AM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

hb, I have followed this discussion at arms length at best .. so forgive me if I'm out in left field ... but I have been hearing this business about there being no large oil fields left to discover for decades ... over twenty years. From my own limited knowledge, they then discovered North Sea Oil ... and there's supposed to be a real dousy of an oil field off the Argentina coast around the Falkland Islands that would put the North Sea Oil fields to shame. As for the natural enegry resources in Russia, Siberia especially, & China, Africa .... well ... I feel there's more left to discover than we already know about. So ...personally I take these issues with a pinch of salt. Not that I don't believe alternative energy R&D shouldn't be well funded .... I just think the same discussions will be happening another 2 decades on.... without any real impact. Now ...if this post smacks of ignorance ... all I can say is I've read lots of intelligent articles about medical findings & progress, global warming & cyclical ice ages and the like over the last twenty years ... and my conclusion is that much more that is put into print is wrong than is right. It keeps the paid intellectuals in a job and makes everyone else feel good knowing someones actually monitoring these things ... sooooo ... personally ... I'll take a back seat on this one ... I hope this doesn't come across too badly - hey ... my apathy could seemingly be used as an indication of the world at large .... Regards Stephen