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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AK2004 who wrote (11044)	10/2/2000 12:07:36 PM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

<< I do believe that amd would try to go faster than 1.2 is amd would manage to release p4 this year otherwise 1.2 would be good enough. >> They promised a new chip every 5-6 weeks until 1.5 ghz. I really don't think they'll back off that unless they just can't do it, regardless of what intel does. Assuming 1.2 in early/mid october, we get 1.3 in mid/late novemeber and 1.4 in late dec/early jan, with a 1.5 sometime in february. I think that's the time table they need to hit to get to the 1.5 they promised us in Q1 of next year. Also, consider the consequences of this to intel. We could potentially have a comparative product line up like this for the christmas season: Athlons 900mhz - 1.3 ghz Durons 700mhz - 900 mhz P3s 700mhz - 1.13 ghz Cele 500 - 800 mhz I'm not sure what the current price curve is, but we're probably talking about 150-400 for an athlon, 50-125 for a duron). What does intel do with prices to remain competitive? The good answer would be: nothing, just rely on the fact that AMD only has so much capacity, keep prices high, and wait for p4 in Q1.

To: AK2004 who wrote (11044)	10/2/2000 2:18:13 PM
From: Goutam	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert, re: < I do believe that amd would try to go faster than 1.2 is amd would manage to release p4 this year otherwise 1.2 would be good enough. > It's very important for AMD to continue to make strides even if P4 doesn't appear this year. AMD's world wide competitive position is at stake here (reputation, mindshare, business market segment, increased power with oems & infrastructure partners, pricing control, etc.) There are still many third tier oems, and SD shops that use Intel only chips. With more speed gap between AMD, and Intel; AMD can garner significant number of SKUs. Note that I deliberately excluded the mention of Dell. Hope Dell stays with its business decision of relying on a single supplier of CPUs. I'm very curious to see what happens to Dell if Dell continues to remain as Intel only box maker. 2 to 3 speed grade advantage will also be a ticket to business market segment. goutama

To: AK2004 who wrote (11044)	10/2/2000 2:38:26 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

albert, "For the past two months, Intel has not been getting high-speed yields on its Pentium-3 processors" About 4 weeks ago, there was a burst of Intel 1GHz processors, these were probably the last ones from the prior mask set. Paul & Company crowed about Gigamines overrunning Fry's and I got nervous too. Well, the last of those Gigamines disappeared at my local Fry's a week ago, replaced by 3 GHz Athlons. Is anyone else observing the same thing? Kind of ironic that in the same week that the GHz Intel machines disappear, Fry's is selling K6-3-333's on an FIC motherboard for $79. That was one of the results of the last AMD "mask crisis." Maybe a year from now we'll see them selling surplus P3-800's on brand X motherboards for $69. Petz

To: AK2004 who wrote (11044)	10/2/2000 2:54:01 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Respond to of 275872

Albert - RE: "I do believe that amd would try to go faster than 1.2 is amd would manage to release p4 this year otherwise 1.2 would be good enough." Financially, 1.2GHz on desktop is enough for AMD this. Image-wise, 1.3 or 1.4GHz is necessary if Willy comes out at 1.4 and 1.5GHz this year. Performance-wise, vs. Willy to be announced later (although I've drastically lowered my expectations of Willy). AMD may do a 1.33GHz Athlon later this year, not because they need it, but because they can. As long as they don't do an Intel and launch a new speed with 100 parts available in an attempt to make it seem as if they are on par with Intel in speed. But I have enough confidence in AMD to believe they won't do this.