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To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (81575)	12/13/2000 2:23:03 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Wow! NG stocks are back to where they were on Sept 8 already (mid july levels for prior two years) and this week will be a massive hit as well. Next week's numbers should put us back to mid August levels and we haven't even started winter yet! The point of the comparisons is that not only were we increasing stores more slowly than normal this summer, we are also reducing them much faster than normal now. So much for the massive influx of NG the experts were predicting earlier this year. Wonder when the talk of "missing barrels" will start up again. It's about that time...

To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (81575)	12/13/2000 3:21:01 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

To answer partially some questions I raised earlier, if gas draw-down for the rest of the winter is only equal to last year, there will be only 40%, or about 400 billion cf, in storage as the spring comes on, of what was there at the beginning of last summer. If there is much additional electrical generation using gas over the summer, we might easily enter the winter without enough gas to last until the spring of 2002. I don't know if a Bush-led government would try to do any rationing or even jawboning to conserve gas. One good thing is that it cannot be very easily blamed on the Saudis, so something positive might be done. Anyone care to work out any more of the implications?

To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (81575)	12/14/2000 7:23:45 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Ron, AGA Table. Looks like the first week of each year is missing for some reason. Thanks again for all your work in keeping this data coming. As of the latest AGA report, if we get a cumulative draw for the rest of the winter equal to what it was from this point on last winter, storage will be down to 420 BCF at the end! In spite of the higher production levels expected this winter, I believe it is reasonable to assume that the additional production will be soaked up by higher demand for electricity and heating.