Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (50695)	12/22/2000 11:05:37 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

If there is no recession coming then you better take all your money and throw it at NAZDAQ. No Recession, No seloff. A recesion is being priced in. Without it we will have a massive rally next year.

To: MythMan who wrote (50695)	12/22/2000 11:18:10 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

The only person actually rooting for a recession is Magner, and that's just so he can finally be right after all these years. -g- What I am rooting for is that the powers that be to finally take a close, hard look at reality, instead of trying to pretend that the situation is rosy. >>As Consumers Turn Pessimistic, Factory Workers Feel the Chill<< By DAVID LEONHARDT For much of the last two years, the Frigidaire washer-and-dryer factory in Webster City, Iowa, could barely keep up with demand. The work force in the squat building — just off the Boone River, close to Iowa's geographical center — had increased since 1998 by about 700 people, or nearly 50 percent, and the company continued hiring new employees as recently as early in November. Then everything seemed to come to a halt. Consumer purchases of large appliances, which had leveled off during the summer, started dropping. In Webster City, overtime hours disappeared, employees say. Soon after Thanksgiving, Frigidaire announced that it would lay off 130 workers almost immediately. Last week, plant managers told workers that 28 more people would lose their jobs before the end of the year. "When you're pushing all year long, and you've got foremen riding you all year long to push things out the door, it comes as a shock," said Kim Willson, a 15-year employee who has kept her job but now works fewer hours. Over the last month, similar kinds of shocks have reverberated from factory floors to executive suites to the office of the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan. As the economy has sharply slowed, the manufacturers have been hit hardest, in part because consumers have grown far more hesitant about making large purchases like appliances, cars and personal computers. Many of the main culprits — tighter credit, higher energy costs and falling stocks — have been hampering the economy for much of the last year. What has changed in recent weeks, economists say, is that Americans have suddenly become more pessimistic about their job prospects in 2001, despite an unemployment rate that, at 4 percent, remains near a 30-year low. With this pessimism comes the risk that spending will fall further, requiring companies to reduce excess inventories and cut their payrolls — a situation that could potentially snowball into something much worse.<< nytimes.com Now, is it true that the only thing that's changed is consumer sentiment? Does that make sense to you? Or is it that the Fed got worried about inflation, has quit expanding credit at a breakneck rate, the credit market is tightening, and the chickens are coming home to roost?

To: MythMan who wrote (50695)	12/22/2000 11:29:46 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

I am not rooting for either -- just looks inevitable given the recklessness of those who ought to know better. Sometimes I do get a giggle out of folks who underestimate the severity of the situation -- living with blinders on. (I think the decline we've had already in Naz stocks guarantees a recession -- risk is of a more severe downturn now is very real given the other factors involved)

To: MythMan who wrote (50695)	12/22/2000 12:24:06 PM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 436258

MythMan Stocks to sell off is one thing, but recessions are not a good thing nor something we should be cheering on. I think most are in agreement with that view. Even if you are a perma bear, having a permanently depressed market will not lead to money making opportunities. I would like to see this "gorrilla" idea given a sound thrashing though. In the end, all the companies that supply the "gorrillas" (including the customers), are treated as trash upon trash. That ain't right. In the end the gorrillas are castles in the air. I am prepared to go though some personal discomfort to see the purveyors of that philosophy suffer some real economic anguish as an example to all. -g- The bigger they are, the harder they fall, and as I learned in the 'States, you can kick 'em down again on the bounce -g- pearly.

To: MythMan who wrote (50695)	12/22/2000 12:25:45 PM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Myth, I agree... everyone would be hurt by a recession, even the bears.

To: MythMan who wrote (50695)	12/22/2000 1:02:05 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

MM, I advocate compassionate tough love that is why we must try to educate the masses about the nature of the credit excesses and the inevitable resulting TL & EV. I am a compassionate bear and cannot in good conscience remain silent while the public is set up for severe economic violence. I remind you of the tough love maxim -da bigger da boom da bigger da bust. My head hurts just thinking about it! mike

To: MythMan who wrote (50695)	12/24/2000 11:37:43 AM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 436258

MM, the most irresponsible cheerleading has been done by the bulls. What is worse is their manipulation of economic statistics to create the illusion of a productivity miracle, economic growth without corresponding income growth due to the magic of hedonics and understate product price inflation which is still the highest amongst major industrial nations. In addition, the quality of earnings has never been worse due to stock options accounting, recurring non recurring charges, pooling of interests, investment gains, gains from options in a company's own stock et.al. The bears objections were drown out by cheerleading bulls who ridiculed students of history and ignored the evidence that shatters the new era myth. We cannot wish away the inevitable severe consequences of the greatest bubble in history but we can prepare for TL & EV. Hell hath no fury like the tough love tempest!HO HO HO Mike