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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (88234)	1/11/2001 12:04:59 AM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Probably Uk which has been bothering me lately. They are running along the same lines as we did consumer credit wise. There credit card saturation is high which could of contributed to their bumper retail crop on the Holidays. There is no question in my mind that some stocks are way overvalued here. our debt load is too high and revamping as msft for the xbox and intc and likes clearly states computer sales and software are in heavy competition now. You can add India and China to your thoughts as if either nation can start delivering products that are superior to those here. If they can't get the mechanics up fast enough then you could see due to no other choice another run here. You are missing nothing, other than the power, the rest of the world still assumes is here.

To: Earlie who wrote (88234)	1/11/2001 8:37:40 AM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

earlie, in baseball, players make the hall of fame for being great starting pitchers, relief pitchers, fielders, sluggers, singles hitters, base stealers, etc. similarly, in the market, there are many paths to success, not just one. in your post, i see at least three themes. 1. economic conditions as they currently exist, for example, inventories The horrific inventories continue to build and the consumer consumer economic activity has entered free-fall mode 2. possible federal reserve action and whether that will be effective or not. 3. investor psychology. === the element i would like to add to the discussion is that i think an investor needs to decide what area or areas of market analysis, he/she is good at. some investors succeed because they are masters at reading and reacting to investor psychology. other investors are masters at understanding the federal reserve and the impact of their likely action on the economy and how the stock market will react to the action and the economic change. other investors are excellent at looking at balance sheets and ferreting out details others miss that may later become important to the market. still others have a vision of growth in a certain sector. etc. i think it is a mistake for an investor to imagine that they are good at everything. so if i were looking at your post, in terms of "what are you missing", which of these elements that you bring to the table have you been most successful at deploying? the answer might be different for different people. i don't think our job here is to come up with the "right" solution for everyone, but something that works for us individually.

To: Earlie who wrote (88234)	1/11/2001 10:12:35 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, Wall St and the fed have had remarkable success in keeping the bubble afloat- at the expense of our future I might add. The bears who recognize that the productivity and profit miracles are in reality mirages realize that unprecedented credit excesses have fueled this market. We know there is a breaking point but many expected it long ago and the bears have come to fear the reckless easy money from the Fed- especially rate cuts before expiration. My feeling is any Fed inspired rallys will be short lived because the last surprise rate cut had little impact. The fundamental case for the bears is overwhelming but we are betting against the house. The game is rigged like never before so bet with your head not over it. My feelings about gold stocks are that I am prepared to hold them into bankruptcy for the chance to participate on the incredible upside explosion when the banker( Central & bullion) engineered bear market in gold backfires. The bottom line is reality is on the side of the bears but the banksters are masters of illusion. mike

To: Earlie who wrote (88234)	1/11/2001 11:14:35 AM
From: Tom M	Respond to of 132070

[edited out duplicate - oops] eom

To: Earlie who wrote (88234)	1/11/2001 11:15:12 AM
From: Tom M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie re:sitting out or jumping in - it may be a bit sophomoric of me, but I don't see people giving enough consideration to the Jan 20 deadline required to keep Clinton's legacy "in tact", as it were. As we've seen, this has been an extremely politically targeted market of liberal interpretations vs conservative. We've also seen Wall St go liberal mainstream media via CNBS etc. Wall St and corporate america couldn't embrace Clinton any more for allowing this wonderous new era, and I certainly believe that Wall St is "trying" to keep his legacy as intact as possible till Jan 20. If a rally continues past that, fine, but the landing won't be on his watch. They're already salivating about the next election. I think too many people share your and my feelings that it's probably the most dangerous rally in history to try to get in on - and more importantly, out earlie -g-.

To: Earlie who wrote (88234)	1/11/2001 11:22:01 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, I play bridge with a number of groups that has members that are all over 60 and have a fair amount of paper assets. The people all use financial advisors and they are "still" in the equity market. Of course I have been preaching for the last two years that the market is over priced, but these advisors recommended that they stay the course. Since March they have seen there assets decrease in value and are staying the course, but complaining that things are getting worse each quarter. I asked one gal when she was going to sell and she responded "what do I do with my money, put it in index funds". I did respond "have your ever heard of cash or cash equivalents. <g> I do not know when these folks will throw in the towel, but when they do it will be close to the bottom. It sounds to me like these financial advisors are keeping these folks in the market so they can continue to charge fees and I suspect the folks will sell when they can not take the pain any longer. Joan

To: Earlie who wrote (88234)	1/11/2001 12:12:25 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, First things first. Congrats on Yahoo and Nokia, two bloated sea mammals I know you have been seeking like Capt. Ahab after that pale whale. Your harpoons nailed them but good. I am as bearish as ever longer term, and my call focus is in two areas: stocks that simply don't have much further downside left, because they have to stop at zero, and those that have gotten clipped but still have a positive quarter coming up. I do think the Fed's cut will have some positive impact on the techs, temporarily. I am not sure about the rest of the market. People don't buy houses no matter what the interest rate when they are worried about job security. And when the internut people are hitting the bricks, resumes in hand, everyone starts to sweat a bit. So, I guess for me, it is a change in focus. I was buying few puts and doing a huge number of bear spreads on many of the bloated internut cos. Those are now an endangered species and I really don't chase a $150 stock when it is at $8. There is nothing left for me to make. So, I am shifting my focus to other industries and larger cos. I do think there is plenty of downside left in some of the larger techs, the Oracles, Ciscos, etc., but, I believe many other industries are now as overpriced as techs are. Financials come to mind immediately. The current PE ratios are not trememdous, but the bubble earnings are. The entire Dow looks like a put to me. It has held up much too well, and, yes, I know it has more quality than the death watch Naz, but it also has a lot of crap in it. Remember back when we were all complaining about the Dow on steroids as old line cos. were taken out and new pair of dime cos. added. That has to hit them soon. Some of the defensive stocks kind of offend me, too. I don't believe that most of them are really defensive. True, you have to have your prescriptions whether you are employed or not, but you can complain about price gouging and elect somebody to get the crooks into line. And that hurts profits, even though unit sales may be defensive. So, I see plenty of downside left, but some of the places where I was playing games are now demolished arenas. I have to take my wrecking ball to the new construction. <g>

To: Earlie who wrote (88234)	1/11/2001 2:13:41 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

This to me is the germinal statement of your post: "Still staying with the fed for a moment, I also think the Fed has precious little remaining room to make cuts without a swift and ugly response from the other (bond and currency) pits that will tear the guts out of the stock markets in any event. Surely this is not an insight that is the exclusive domain of a few." When it dawns on everyone who is either: 1) fixed income or 2) bondholder that they are being sacrifed at the alter of the equities market, the jig is up... When that realization will occur is anybodies guess though: people are actually much stooopider than we think...lol