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To: Earlie who wrote (60053)	1/20/2001 9:39:55 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

nice post. jump towers now in position and ready to fly to all hot spots as needed. Easy al's code word is: Wing Commander Torah! Torah! Torah! btw: bonzai is not just a plant

To: Earlie who wrote (60053)	1/20/2001 9:56:48 AM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie- The U.S. economy is 2/3rds consumer spending. And most of Joe Sixer's recent spending has been debt based. Now, his SUV costs a week's pay to fill, his taxes, utilities, insurance, child care, etc. costs are rising and his STOCKS ARE DOWN. He "feels" poorer, and is cutting back, especially on borrowing for consumption. Hello recession. Yep, I though it was very telling for HD to cite consumer debt levels in the cos. recent warning. I don't recall a retailer ever doin that. IMO big orange box is a better retail proxy than Wal-Mart for consumer spending. People will often put off buying Wal-Mart items to make a needed or desired home improvement. If spending is declining now and going forward at HD that does not bode well for traditional retailers. It tells me consumers believe they really don't have the money...at all. Atlanta-based Home Depot added that it did not expect conditions affecting sales to improve in its first half. It said record cold weather and rising energy costs, investment losses, higher interest rates and increasing consumer debt levels were putting pressure on customers.

To: Earlie who wrote (60053)	1/20/2001 4:21:05 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

It will probably take some kind of "exogenous" event to break up this nice little Dow rotational party. I have three candidates: 1. Japan: japantimes.co.jp These guys are now annihilating their own currency because they are desperate and nothing else is working. Imo this is a primo time bomb. If it's this bad during a "boom year", God help them when their exports dry up. Big big trouble brewing here. 2. Energy Crises: A bit obvious, but still quite effective. 3. A major financial firm blowing up ala Drexel or LTC. Financial panic would definitely do the trick. We'll see. Japan is #1 because the depth and seriousness of the problem is being vastly under-reported by the financial press, thus when it cracks wide open it will do a Gomer Pyle on the press - Surpriiiiise, Surpriiiise, Surpriiiise!

To: Earlie who wrote (60053)	1/20/2001 4:41:24 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I have only one small disagreement with that post. It is wrt interest rates not working. Imo rate cuts will work one final time because they will be: 1. Worldwide. 2. Massive in scale. 3. Coordinated. The poor currency traders won't know what currency to short. <g> Still, it will take much longer than Wall Street is currently projecting. Longer than the 2 qtr blip being thrown about on Wall Street these days. Certainly 100 basis points won't do it. I am looking for something on the order of 300 basis points for US short rates. We've only got 50 in the bank now. Still a long long way to go. We are only in the "discovery phase". ;o} JMVVHO

To: Earlie who wrote (60053)	1/20/2001 5:10:40 PM
From: JHP	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie were have you been?<G> This is the bulls answer to interest rate reductions: There have been 79 discount rate cuts in the 84 year history of the fed. After the cuts, the DJI was up: 74 % of time after 3 months 78% of time after 6 months 83% of time after 12 months. This may not prove much but it sure is impressive. regards john