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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (84827)	1/20/2001 11:53:28 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I had read BigDog's article but your post got me nervous as I hadn't checked the insider ownership of my holdings in awhile. Was pleasantly surprised, and actually going to change some asset allocations Monday. Is anyone more than mildly nervous about the California situation? It has me VERY uncomfortable as the politicians don't seem to yet grasp the severity of the situation. At least they are much closer to enlightenment now than they were a week ago.

To: isopatch who wrote (84827)	1/20/2001 12:11:35 PM
From: Aggie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

isopatch, good morning. Not being critical, but what are your conclusions? I'm glad to hear that the Herold company has a pedigree, but it seems to me that their article is equally unwilling to conclude anything. Huge swaps of gas properties, across borders, within borders, cash being used....why all the melodrama? If they think things are about to topple, why not say so? Sometimes it seems to me that this kind of stuff is written in a way so that they can point to it later and claim prediction rights - no matter what relation the outcome bears to their original views. To my mind, large insider selling is a good indicator to follow, but only as a second-order-of-importance parameter. I would be more wary of an executive, with discount options and a large stock position, who doesn't lock in profits once in a while. And overall, I don't think we have seen too many senior executives cashing in their total position. Now, that would give me pause, it's true. Regards and Good Luck, Aggie

To: isopatch who wrote (84827)	1/20/2001 1:36:35 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Iso, Herold was mentioning the insider sales in contrast to the fact that cash is being used for acquisitions because management feels that the stock of their companies is undervalued. So which is it?...Herold asks. big

To: isopatch who wrote (84827)	1/22/2001 7:02:44 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Insider NG Sales "revelation" ? /Rig Party/ GOLD pop ! Iso & Big Dog... re: insider sales, any discussion "last week" and Herold's Jan 18th "headliner" are hardly a "scoop".... <<After the extensive thread discussion, last week, where Big Bull and I stressed the importance of the large increases in insider selling throughout the patch - during the past 6 months - the remarks from Herold are particularly timely in reaffirming our view that these sales ARE significant. And if anything may even be reaching new highs since mid-1999. To continue from Herold, "...our table of insider trades in the Jan. 18 Headliner, at a more than twice normal four pages".>> No one had to wait untill Jan 18th when APA APC EOG et al had allready blown off $15-$20 from their highs...I think Herold is getting his idea's here (VBG) - re: *********************** Dec 31st: Message 15103004 <<That no one is talking about the insider selling being done is another sign that the majority of threadsters here became blind to reality. The single most significant factor is that Q4, Q1 will be the absolute "peak" in the earnings cycle for the Independant E&P's - as crude has faded from $35 to the high $20's of late & as we are more than likely going to see a substantial retrace from the peak winter demand season drawdowns. - I envision few scenario's sectorwide; that would allow a move to a significant new high sectorwide; let alone a scenario of maintaing those highs past Q4, or Q1 reporting. ... as I said earlier; there is going to be a whole lotta people holding some pretty lofty profits all heading to the exit doors at once; very, very soon - bank on it. The strong insider selling here is an indication of that. I'd acknowledge that they are not necessarially the best market-timers; perhaps no better, or worse than the Street; but there is very significant selling imho; as insiders realize that the present confluence of events is unsustainable and indeed a - "too perfect storm". Here are just a few wake up calls: Insiders selling HEAVY ! Significant selling - substantial positions being sold; with some CFO's & VP's of exploration - key frontline people; dumping significant & even total positions in some cases. biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com The Peak for E&P earnings is Q4, or Q1 reporting; the only question remaining imho; is how soon are you going to start taking profits & chips off the table & rotating to later cycle plays... There is a very, very good chance here imho; that those that may be getting a little Hoggish (vs piggish) in trying to capture all of the remaining winter weather upside potential to Nat Gas; may see rollover & a significant pullback - ala Sept 99 much sooner than they are expecting.>> **************************** ....Hmmmm; Dec 31 - a "Nat Gas TOP CALL" ... I wonder how good a call that ended up being ? - considering all the naysaying.... here's a little XNG - Nat Gas index chart to see just how close that Dec 31 "call" was to the Nat Gas/ XNG top: finance.yahoo.com^XNG&d=3mm .... didn't need no stinkin' Herold & Co alert - a FULL 2 1/2 WEEKS LATE on the NG top call (VBG) - the better call was here & it was free - with a little "hubris" thrown in... ===================================================================== ... and now how 'bout that other terrible call on Gold & Silver ? US must and will - "walk the Dollar down" - have to if they want to cure the Account Deficit & they must; corporate profits demand it; foreign currency & systemic economic stress requires it & further interest rates cuts guarantee it. Gold will trade inversely to the US Dollar & the Dollar is, must and will - be "walked down" - bank on it & get some unhedged Gold/Silver - XAU stocks.... today's hi-lites: XAU + 6.18 % AEM +12% HM +9% PDG +9% NEM +7% small caps: CDE + 19%, KRY +16%, KGC +12%,SSRI +12% etc ... and you "aint" seen nothin' yet fwiw ======================================================================= re: Rig Party ... my location vote: "Vegas" - come on guys; The Oilpatch is all about Americana; Vegas is the natural choice - Elvis, Booze, Babes & Black Jack and some pretty damn nice golfing... ... my seating preference: SargeK to the left & Lil' Princess Di to the right & JQP straight across the table...and Cosmo within spittin' distance... it won't be boring folks ;) PS: SargeK's phone got turned off & he's moved in with his son Keith & his family. They're all shackin' up - all 7 of them in that 24' Airstream in that ramshackle little mobile home park next to the Railroad Tracks past the Wal Mart there in Tyler; but I've got the phone number to the laundromat next door to his trailer - so I'll get Sluggo the info on the Rig Party; but we're probably going to have to take up a collection for Mr. Freidemania and pay for his airefare & hotel... because he surely won't be able to pay his own way & we don't want him showing up & having to sleep in that 66' Ford Pick Up with the Bull Horns duck-tapped on as a hood ornament(VBG)~ I'll chip in the first hundred - maybe we can have 'Big handle the SargeK "memorial" fund contributions... just wouldn't be the same without ole' Sluggo...if ya know what I mean ~ PS S: ... couple of leading economic indicator reports now showing 3 consecutive negative reports - ie: This is the first "by definition" - Recession now endorsed....I'd be rolling out of Tech & focusing on being a Pig and not a Hog... TXN misses, warns for Q1 & offers "no visibility" for the 2nd half - that's the key... more misses & estimates to come down in Q1 and the bigger problem is the "lack of guidance" for 2nd half... this expansion was built by reckless credit expansion & the US consumer is tapped out, consumer credit deliquencies are ramping - rate cuts won't do it & rate cuts won't replace the Telcom cap Ex $ that no longer exist & there won't be those tens of Billions of IT $ to spend that came with the dot.com IPO-mania wave... sub 2000 NAZ & 8850 DOW looking more realistic & likely every day.... It's the RECESSION - Stupid ..... One last March to April Oilpatch run & get your Yellow Dogs lined up & get your short list back out & dusted off...before we all see "RECESSION" hit the headlines of Barrons, Newsweek & Time by June...and Greenspan's gone by the 4th of July - you heard it hear first... (beat Drudge on that one)... Ciao ~