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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (3299)	3/18/2001 3:44:15 AM
From: Eurobum1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Michaels...Nice charts... Very illustrative pictures. I look at the market hour by hour lately. You can always have the opportunities, long or short.

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (3299)	3/18/2001 9:18:15 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Michael, >>>> ottographs.com 1 - Rally to resistance, and a clunk 2 - Rally to resistance and a believable move up 3 - Clunk right away <<<<< So per that chart, it is implying that the SPX is still in PHASE 2, with PHASE 3 still to come. If the SPX is still in PHASE 2, does that have to mean that the NAZ/NDX cannot be in PHASE 3 already, and is still also in PHASE 2, or can the various indices progress through the 3-PHASES at different times. In no way am I saying that the NAZ/NDX cant go lower, since I have the lowest target at 1063 on the NDX. Im just wondering that if the SPX and DOW continued down hard, if the NAZ/NDX will either follow downwards or less possibly benefit from some sort of reduced sector rotation where they may not go down as much or even go up some.

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (3299)	3/18/2001 10:57:57 AM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Mike, the fact that you're hearing a lot of people talking about a bottom makes me want to fade that argument all the more. I don't know maybe they're seeing something I'm not. As I said in a earlier post I do have a couple of companies that "look" like they're going to try to push higher this week. The interesting thing about that is they are a couple of generals. Which I plan on taking seriously. However, my approach to the markets has always been based on what I believe to be some simple truths. I follow all the major indices just to be tied to the overall cross currents of prices. Plus I follow a broad basket of stocks which not only allows me multiple trading vehicles but it also offers me insight into market direction at times when you're overall market "visibility" is muddied (I am really beginning to hate that word <g>). Hence, if you have 80% of your stocks breaking key support it eventually has to mean that the indices would soon follow. All anyone has to do today (this weekend) is start scanning chart patterns to realize that this is happening on a massive scale. Damage that only worsened this passing week. Regarding the chart you posted. I think it's a perfect illustration for prices overall. The fact that we've broken support speaks volumes in itself. I think the scenarios that you posted are all possible. Which one actually plays out may be impossible to predict especially in a fast moving market like this week may bring. Yet our only advantage may be in what the market has given us already. A giant basket of stocks that have already broken down to levels where there's little support left. Once again time will tell.

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (3299)	3/18/2001 10:58:48 AM
From: Chris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

very good work.. it's copyrighted too ;)

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (3299)	3/18/2001 11:47:09 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

>>Sure are a lot of folks believing that a bottom is closer than farther<< I think we are closer to a bottom but that assumption is based on "time" and NOT "price". There are a lot of cycle turn dates approaching. Note the targets for bounces around 1500 NDX and 1100 NDX. The 1100 target would be around another 38% down from here. Still I just don't see a 1929 type economy ahead. Unemployment isn't rampant and I don't see it getting too much worse. Fuel prices are stabilizing although this summer I expect some serious electric problems due to the low snow fall this winter out here in the west where hydro power is going to be seriously impacted. GDP growth is slowing but it still has yet to go negative and looking at the history of rate cuts and the markets we are so far following the script fairly well. I think the Fed's target rate of 2.5% is attainable. I am looking forward to investing and not trading as much. The greater fool style trading of the last few years was profitable yet it was a crazy way to make money. Basically we all knew we were over paying and yet could count on some other fool to over pay by more down the road. I think we will go back to being able to invest on more realistic expectations of good companies and less manic swings eventually and I view that as healthy. It was discouraging before to find a good company and not have it move because everyone was chasing the latest fad that was never going to earn a cent. Real earnings were being ignored on the hopes of future promises. I bought some stocks in the last few years that never moved yet had 30% growth and were below book. I have to admit I finally dumped them since I didn't want my money sitting doing nothing. I was telling Don I should have stayed in them since in the last year they have suddenly become "discovered" and have moved up smartly. This is the way the market was supposed to work. The 95 - 2000 craze happens once every generation and we finally are putting an end to this latest chapter and should return to a more rational market until the next batch of fools that choose to ignore history start playing the markets. Unfortunately I don't think we are completely there yet reading around the stock specific threads where there is still too much hope and unreasonable expectations. However I also don't think the market is going to die. We just have to lower our aim a bit. Good Luck, Lee