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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (39677)	5/16/2001 7:07:27 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Sometime entrenched bearish feelings lead market to selling pressures, FTSE is one example today, the unemployment figures came out at 25 years low but market sold off, yesterday the market sold off as the FED statement lacked guidance on economic recovery. Now on Friday last when retail sales spooked the bearish sentiment the strong number led to selling as the market decided that this strong number reduces the chances of a cut but yesterday FED allayed those fears and delivered the cut and promised an easing stance for 28th June. Market thought that why the FED did not comment on state of recovery or guided that economy will recover rather hinted a slow down in capital expenses for corporations as continued. They finally succumbed to the ‘dumb pressure’ and sold off towards later part of the sessions as anticipated.Whichever way you see market likes to sell and that speaks what kind of sentiment we are working within! FED cuts and hints future cuts the market is not happy, GDP comes strong and retail sales are better than expected and stronger number is hated for FED inabilities. The FED if it was so intelligent would have not raised the rates to 6.5% at the first place and would not have waited until 3rd Of Jan to cut. By hindsight we can say that they know about economy as little as the guy who has span as short as next session. The FED will depend on the numbers and stronger numbers anyway lead market to sell, as market thinks Fed ability to cut diminishes, now the whole issue is that we need to see continuity in stronger numbers that will save the market from breaking here but that itself contains a germ of doubt that of ‘inflationary fears’ hence the rising yields on long bond. A market is in a stalemate it wants to sell on good news and bad news anyway will lead to selling, in such a case only stronger numbers will help the situation those cannot be ignored for far too long, although the chances the we sell hard on DOW if CPI is not in line as BKX get hit remain on stronger number but it will be stronger numbers only that can save this market from breaking here. I see a possibility of nice decent sell and I will like to provide for that in my strategy, a collection of puts with some number of covered calls is the strategy now, we will like to see 1228 and action at that level so would 2000 Comp come in play but the whole issue is muddled with lot of contrary argument and these contrary argument have this tricky history of washing off in face of facts. I am going to play this game the way market wants in face of increased bearishness but keeping in my mind that if history has to believed the rising liquidity the shape of the 30-year bond yield curve all point to a recovery that will hit 1328 on SPX to retrace from that point will be a more credible move. In the interim play with 1213-1267 band with ease. That is exactly I am doing selling some calls that protect nearly 35% of my portfolio and buying some bonds here for hedge and investing the premiums on some puts.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (39677)	5/18/2001 9:46:55 AM
From: Crystal ball	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Agreed. " A.B.C." ECONOMICS: There is great hope for India and its poor because it is democratic and has the peace and nonviolent historical heritage of Mahatma Gandhi and others on which to build an integrated society, although like even the US there is a long way to go to eradicate social prejudice. However, Communist Chinese peasants are and always will be poorer, I see no chance of them building a proper consumer class that will every justify the childish investment of simple minded less educated American investors who just think 1.2 Billion Chinese automatically means profits. All it means is slavery and a destruction of orderly markets and well ordered democratic societies around the globe that are fooled into investing Billions of SCARCE DOLLARS into a Chinese Communist Military Dominated Regime of "RED GANGSTER SLAVE MASTERS". Slave Trade is NOT FREE TRADE. Investment in Mexico, India, ANYWHERE BUT CHINA (ABC) will allow investment dollars to uplift the human condition worldwide while making profits that are capable of multiples, NEVER in Communist China with its 12 cen an hou slave labor and Communist Ideology, Centralized Planning did not work in the USSR and will never work in China, all it will do is undermine the world economy and particularly the US economy, even NAFTA. Now I look at NAFTA and say we HAVE TO. I am, Truly your$, -Crystal Ball P.S. PALM is quite a buy today, Yankowski should resign, its a management problem not the products, and I see PALM still having its inventory SOLD OUT by Christmas as odd as this seems to those ANALysts out there, you have to remember for example that Campuses are handing out PALMS with Freshman Admissions, the future CEOs and Sales Forces and Professional Classes will have lived their entire academic life with PALMs, and as the economy improves, which it is just now turning around, they will opt to "churn" budgets to cheaper Technology enabling devices, and that means cheaper PALMS instead of laptops and desktops, it really is that simple.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (39677)	5/21/2001 7:24:25 AM
From: The IB Dude	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

OT...................................... from Zach Latif.. Dad I was reading this comment on Raj <<The inequalities that find it roots to the caste system where some are left to be devoured by fellow beings for their entire existence, the Islamic and Mogul domination of north Indian society that created that division that still haunts Indian sub-continent, the Raj that never addressed those inequalities of centuries and perpetuated a system where 200,000 bureaucrats could control 400 million masses in undivided India until 1947, and the political leadership that betrayed the India by pursuing in the first 40 years of its existence policies that were Socialists in character. >> You may find my views on Raj in the following post fascinating although modestly controversial and hot but academic provocation is important aspect of such discussions.I had discussions on why Africa remained backward and the huge impact of colonialization on the sub-continent and Africa. Raj was important factor, I thought my comments were quite relevant to your approach, just wanted to share them with you. With all due respect, Education is the only way for a country to escape the pitfalls of poverty. Illiteracy is criminal act no.1 and for you to make such a remark that individuals only benefit from it, beggars belief. Look lets take a look at my own country Pakistan where the illiteracy rate is 65%. I don't think that even super human leadership will be able to turn around a country where the average person wouldn’t even know how to write his name. When you say education only benefits individuals, do you not feel that those very individuals will go on to better the country. Look at Japan, the very reason that they have done so well is a skilled workforce with strong emphasis on education. As for good governance well, an election usually takes place on average every 2 years there. So despite very unstable leadership there, they have done so well primarily due to their educated populace. So lets not dispute that fact any longer and I hope you will acknowledge your mistake regarding this point. Education makes the country and only with an educated populace is democracy truly possible. Now as for colonization's effects. Well let’s take my country's example once again. The British were the ones who implemented the feudal system on us, which has proved to be one of the strongest deterrents to our progress they EMPHASIZED the difference between Hindu’s and Muslims in effect destroying the legacy Akbar the Great left India. Divide and rule was their strategy to rule and deflower the sub-continent. When they finally abandoned us literally overnight after 200 year of Raj, we were in a disastrous position. Look our first leaders were writing our constitution on the back of cardboard. We had a population where education was non-existent primarily because the British never thought it necessary to educate us brownies who were only fit to serve them. They created the myth of Ghurka battalions who were actually British mercenaries and still are, the brave of sub-continent were inducted in British Army and send all over to fight the first and the Second World War. They had their bunch of brown sahibs who were sycophants and they were promoted or given land, but the rest were just forgotten and left to rot. Due to the slip shod and highhanded methods that Britain used to carve up the subcontinent (our partition cost the sub-continent as many lives as the holocaust). We after partition in Pakistan were facing a huge and formidable India, instead of leaving a country that should have been a cradle of mutual tolerance and respect, the vacuum created by sudden absence of our masters made us fight like wild dogs. All this never made it easy for us especially in the early years, now it has transformed into a nuclear battleground ready to implode anytime. I feel that whatever little we have ever accomplished has been marvelous considering the situation we were left in. I admit that they British did modernize Pakistan but the long colonial Raj left us untrained to assume responsibility, they never taught us the masses on how to maintain our country and they left us without even preparing us for the trials ahead. The egalitarian and elitist remnants of Raj form the leadership of present sub-continent and sub-Saharan Africa, this leadership still keeps common man divided and play massive games of divide and rule. The people suffer today from the values bequeathed to these nations through a leadership who apparently raised the slogan of independence but were more ‘English than English’. Look at Nehru and Jinnah, Nehru did not spare Mountbatten’s wife Edvina, he took the taste of the Raj masters to keep mistresses right into Mountbatten’s bed. Jinnah loved pork and wines along with Cuban cigars with expensive tastes of clothes and shoes. A liberal and a secularist became of leader of Pakistan that was supposed to be a Muslim nation. Pakistan is caught up in the contradictions of Jinnah and its Islamic roots, still after 53 years it cannot come out of it’s despair and define it’s sense of identity. Is it secular or Islamic? The problem was that people’s sense of distinguishing right from wrong suffered greatly under Raj, that faculty was compromised for 200 years. Today this ex-colonial mess is a challenge to the conscience of the world! We need to help them through education and infra-structure otherwise billions of teeming masses will make this borderless world a very difficult proposition, our environment is shared our seas are common and our rivers have same sources. If we need to protect mother earth we need to eradicate aids poverty and misery otherwise everyone of us will suffer the consequences. I request you to see that colonization was extremely harmful to Africa and is one of the main reasons why sub-Saharan Africa is a backwater today.