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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (12063)	12/22/2001 8:46:11 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<I also wonder how many politicians, economist, media commentators even discussed the possibility with enough lead time, much less predicted what took place in Japan or 1929; actually I do not wonder, I am fairly certain that few did.> Jay, at the risk of idle boastfulness, I told Yukari, a student who stayed with us for 5 weeks in 1989, that Japan was in for a very big fall [the Nikkei I especially meant and of course that would flow into the economy as big crashes do]. When the Imperial Palace was worth more than New Zealand and Tokyo was worth more than the USA and similar silly valuations, it was apparent that mania was marauding. In 1999, I ranted month after month after month about how the Nasdaq and Dow were going to get their comeuppance and soon [like right now]. It was a standing joke. In 1986 I was ranting to my BP colleagues that NZ companies were inflating on borrowings and would make a big puff-ball which would go poof. It did, in 1987 and the L is still the shape of the curve, over 14 years later. For years I was ranting that Globalstar would fail with their high-priced strategy and issued sell warnings. I stayed in, expecting to go through the bottom and expecting them to figure out the rather simple idea that if they charge too much money, they would not sell many minutes at all. They would try their silly strategy for a few months, realize they were wrong, then slash prices and sell billions of minutes. Today, they are continuing with their failed strategy. It's amazing and very much a reminder to me that predicting the future is extremely difficult, especially when people are involved [as they seem to be in the pixilated world of pixels and investments]. As you rightly point out, humans can keep an irrational exuberance going for years after it should be a popped bubble. They can persevere with failing policies when reality is smashing them to pieces. That is cognitive dissonance writ large. Their minds reverbrate in confusion as their internal models of reality clash with the very harsh external objective reality which in fact defines existence. Some, such as the Taleban and John Walker or whatever name he currently chooses, persevere with their madness until reality recycles their carbon back into the ecological evolutionary system to try again with a different DNA structure. The perversity of luck and people is that Mike Spann died and John Walker lived. So far, for me, so good! I have even spread my DNA further in case I should get run over by the proverbial bus which statistically gets even the most cautious of DNA on a random basis. I almost think I could be forgiven some hubris, except that for a decade and more, I have been well aware that the instant one's mind shifts towards, "Hmmm, maybe I really am supernatural", that brain glitch causes a gap in thinking and essential paranoia, which likely results in instant DNA recycling. Which is not my plan. I just wanted to point out that prediction of and creation of objective reality is essentially what our brain DNA is for and we deny that self at our peril. Many people say 'you can't time the market' or, 'it's a random walk' or 'it's all too complex too figure out'. Those ideas of nihilism are all essentially true, but only to a large extent. There is that little glimmer of cognition we can bring to bear to improve our prospects. Those who succeed and fulfill their DNA destiny go on to create the objective realities of the future. The Aztecs are in thrall to objective reality and cower before it with their gold totems which people have always valued. Their gold cannot create anything new. It merely retains some value, up or down depending on the level of fear or hubris surging in the public. They can own gold for 100 years and they will maintain their little niche of value in the human pool. But there is no return on investment. They won't create anything new. They aren't funding the development of the future. It is essentially assuming a culture of static tradition. It is the talisman of the Taleban type culture which assumes a fixed world. Which is essentially a world of fear, cringing before the obvious and unavoidable terrors of the universe which challenge us as far as the eye can see and mind can stretch. The brave set out on the sea of adventure, risking all [or a good part that they don't leave at home, perhaps even in the form of a little stash of gold]. Those adventurers literally create the future for everyone. The successful adventurers make great fortunes. Man must move to be alive. Sitting still, on a stash of gold like an Aztec priest, is like being rooted to the past. Trees stay rooted in the past. Humans surge through and create the future. Yes, it's icky and dangerous at times and even always. But that's the only way to make the future happen. Those who stay rooted to the spot end up looking like the Taleban or Ted Kaczynski. There is an ancient Chinese I saw recently saying, "Move a man, he becomes alive; move a tree, it dies". Some people are like trees and they can't cope with movement. But paradigm shift happens. Standing still is a very limited option with as much potential for mayhem as moving quickly into the future; jumping through the portal. Jump Jay, jump! Mqurice PS: I started to make a brief comment but got carried away in what is probably an incoherent rant. It made sense to me at the time....

To: TobagoJack who wrote (12063)	12/22/2001 10:38:50 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<Decisions made at each point by each one of us during the cycle of wealth design, creation, expansion, imagination, hallucination, transfer, and destruction matters to one’s starting point in the subsequent phase. Maurice is stepping into the microwave oven with presumably almost 100% allocation to one scheme, > Jay, each of us is 100% allocated all the time. One wrong step and the bacteria or crematorium are waiting to recycle our misbegotten carbon and DNA back into the ecosphere to have another go at a successful entity. We should not cringe from a 100% allocation. That is the natural state of the world. There is a probability of 1 for all that happens. The doubt and lower probabilities are a measure of our ignorance and stupidity. Our aim is to convert ourselves to Probability = 1 creatures, which we will achieve when we achieve complete harmony with the universe. Which we are not very close to yet [unless one goes all spiritual and gets into the Nirvana theoretical and hypothetical and superstitious realm of religious conmen]. However, if we are going to go to 100% investment allocation, we had better pay intensely close attention or we will be converted to recycled $$ in a flash. Our whole evolutionary history is hardwired into our DNA and memed into our understanding and cultured into our way of life. The same cannot be said for investment which has a weak link and evolutionary history compared with DNA. 1 inch for investment history compared with a petamile for DNA history. Perhaps that's a good argument for spreading the risk. Careers are also 100% allocation, with limited movement posssible once one is aged 40 and well-entrenched. But people are not too worried about that 100% allocation. Most people have one wife or husband = 100% allocation. We commonly go with 100% allocation. We can only be in one place at one time and bet our lives every instant on a 100% allocation to our position on the highway and the instantaneous next position. Just as Tiger Woods does very well with 100% allocation, so too can we, but we had better give as much attention to our 100% investment allocations as he does to golf. A casual, yawning, bet on a good company is dodgy. Now that I think about it, I think it's time to spread out. In fact, I have and am looking to move more. As you so rightly pointed out, the advantage I now have in QUALCOMM has been eroded as thousands of people now scrutinize every move, value every facet and predict every outcome. What advantage do I now have over them? Very little, though I notice that still, very few people understand what's going on, even among the aficianados, and not to mention what might go on. However the prosaic, tangible world of Au and land and buildings leaves me cold. It reminds me of Talebanland and the 19th century. The problem you identified in that quote, 'hallucination', is the big issue. The hallucination that Globalstar or Global Crossing would be the next big thing was a disaster! Avoiding the hallucinatory part is tricky, but we do it in our regular life with attention to enough detail and ensuring a complete understanding. We need to go from the hallucinatory to the Probability = 1 style. A tricky task, but that's the name of the game. Those who approach 1 do extremely well. Those at P = 0.4 are in trouble and are essentially the food supply for those nearer Nirvana. Those P = 0.4 people need to spread their investments a LOT because they cannot beat the P = 0.8 people who need to look out for P = 0.9 neural net, quantum computing, supercomputer algorithm generators. Okay, that's my ranting done for now, Merry Xmas to all [except for you Osama - no I still haven't forgiven you]. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (12063)	12/23/2001 9:51:49 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay I have visited Bangkok twice - in late 1996 and late 1999. I've been at the airport more often than that of course:) I definitely preferred the 1999 version, with its more relaxed pace. In 1996 hustlers were a real nuisance for a very white 6 foot 3 inch male person walking (God forbid) down the street. I had little hassle in 99 wherever I went. This despite the collapse in economic opportunities. Arriving in 96 with the horizon covered in towering incomplete buildings, cranes, freeways etc. reminded me of London in 1990 just before the 80s boom went to bust and I was very briefly a pseudo-yuppie consultant. The pollution and traffic were about the same too. As 1990 was the hottest summer on record in London the weather wasn't dissimilar too. On this trip, I'll get to take a look at Singapore, previously an airport-only visit for me. Hope I can cross the causeway and have a stroll around in Johore Baru too. Will also get to use the new Euro currency in Europe and see how things are in the US. The situation in Australia is that the common belief is that we just had our very brief recession post-GST and post-Olympics and now things are turning around. Canberra is however the only city where a poll of property dealers and investors showed more bullish than bearish about the property market for next year. I'd better get working on my presentation for Princeton soon... I'm provisionally titling it "What would you tell Bush about climate change?" That's after I read this quarterly report from Telecom NZ sitting in front of me.... David