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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (113756)	2/20/2002 12:07:57 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

It's a matter of the entire market getting revalued. The desire to own as to be built back in before the market can move forward again. It's going to take time. b

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (113756)	2/20/2002 12:27:52 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 152472

So the charts direction is pertinent than the fundamentals? What fundamentals? Owning 100% of something that doesn't make any money is pointless. Owning 0.1% of all the cash flow on the planet is worth billions. I grant that Qualcomm falls somewhere in between this rather extreme range. But where? Nobody seems to question any more that the stock was overvalued relative to fundamentals at $200. Ok, so it can be "unfairly" valued at $200. Can't it be unfairly valued at $30? And what single factor requires that the direction of "fair" should be up? Maybe the fair value is at $10 and all this good news has pushed it up to $12? My modelling at the current health of its customers has a "fair" price closer to $20 than $40. FWIW.

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (113756)	2/20/2002 12:30:25 PM
From: alburk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

So the charts direction is more pertinent than the fundamentals< All the news has been what we expected. The problem is the fundamentals. The SP's are in trouble. With SP growth constricting and their financial models under attack,how can QCOM prosper (stock price-wise). Not to say that QCOM is not taking care of business. It seems that QCOM is in the same boat as say CSCO, maintaining and expanding gorillalike control over its market while the enduser market is in a funk, the consequences of which will require time to assess. Andy

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (113756)	2/20/2002 12:55:58 PM
From: David E. Taylor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Stephen: So the charts direction is more pertinent than the fundamentals? For the near term, sure looks like it. Every company with debt on its balance sheet is being viewed as the next possible Enron - and that group unfortunately includes probably every fixed line and wireless telecom SP in the world. For the longer term, fundamentals will eventually prevail, and unless you think everyone's going to quit buying cell phones and that new 3G networks worldwide will be a total bust, QCOM is the best long term bet. Should we all sell in the money calls on our position before it goes to 32? Sell outright? Well, that's the debate I've been having with myself since December, and continue to have: Message 17058574 But I'm still holding, though with about half the position I originally bought in the mid $50's back in the summer of 2000, and I've made some (and lost some, but less) trading options along the way. In the recent slide since December 2001, QCOM looked like it would hold $50, then $45, then $40, but each time those "support points" turned out to be short lived rallies against the downtrend. $35 may hold, but also may be another "head fake". Too late to sell now? Maybe, but based on the chart direction and the short term TA driven trading, we could see easily see the low $20's. It doesn't look as though "news" will break us out of this downtrend, and increasing revenues and earnings are still a couple of Q's away (IMO). In retrospect, LTB&H's would have been much better off selling back in Nov 2000 - Feb 2001 at $85 to $105, and buying back a much bigger position here when it finally bottoms out. But, as I've said before, it's easy to trade the left hand side of the chart. Good luck. David T.