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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (11465)	4/5/2002 2:06:03 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

takes_ time Yen held up 2-3 years past Nekaie crash. So id say by mid next year. IMHO

To: J.T. who wrote (11465)	4/5/2002 2:41:31 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Honestly, JT, I think we are about ready to start -- if we get a couple or 3 pts sharp decline from here in the next week, consider buying some gold shares or at least some euros, aussies or loonies or a basket of them. Many said the same thing about Gold after the WTC -- it spike briefly and went back down -- but look where we are now ... ME?? well ... maybe, but I don't think so. Look at the CRB. There doesn't really have to be any one thing that takes the dollar DOWN? The real question is what has taken it up, IMO -- when you answer that -- then you will know what will take it down -- simply the wearing away of those elements that brought it up. Don't look now, but ...

To: J.T. who wrote (11465)	4/5/2002 3:18:04 PM
From: Daveyk	Respond to of 19219

The thing that would take the dollar down is another currency the world thought was safer.I don't see one here and now.Just that simple J.T. ggg Best,Dave

To: J.T. who wrote (11465)	4/5/2002 5:05:48 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

<<Why hasn't the dollar crashed yet?... Please help me of my ignorance Ken>> Excellent question J.T., and I do not have the answer for you ... nor do I think that the answer is important other than in an academic sense. Almost every act I take as an investor is based on my analysis of what other people say and think ... and that has worked very well for me. I do not do any (or very little) pure investment research, but I do read widely. You have previously taken some shots at Stephen Roach (and the respect that I have for his economic analysis) in a way that says (at least to me) that you 'dismiss' him and his analysis as not worth considering. This suggests to me that your maturity and skills in investment analysis are not as complete as I once thought. Stated simply, Stephen Roach has been much more correct with his macro economic calls since the fall of 2000 than any economist in the world I have heard of till now. If I am wrong, please direct me to the appropriate sources because I would like to read them. He may not be correct about his call for a "double-dip" recession ... and he may not be correct in his prediction of a significant reduction in value of the U.S. dollar not too far down the road. But he is not the only person suggesting that possibility. I have read much the same in the Financial Times, The Economist, ContraryInvestor.com, Barron's and the Wall Street Journal. The "Roach scenarios" are on my radar screen, and that is why I shared them. ... and as far as your ignorance is concerned, that is your responsibility, J.T. ... Ken Wilson

To: J.T. who wrote (11465)	4/5/2002 9:13:08 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Stephen Roach clearly articulated the critical factors that might bring the dollar down, so to me, the reasons why it has not already crashed are not relevant. The only important issue is what is going to happen next and in the future. In my mind, Steven Roach's analysis needs to be considered, which is the reason I posted it. Why might the reasons that the dollar has not already crashed be important to two 'hot-under-the collar' guys like us? Ken "temper tantrum" Wilson <g>

To: J.T. who wrote (11465)	4/5/2002 9:25:12 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

The strong dollar is what will kill the US market and the economy. Because we are too foolish/greedy to recognize that there can be no growth unless the rest of the world participates. The strong dollar is a result of Fed intervention: a major fuk up on their part. Look at it for yourself, everytime the Euro looks like its going to break out it gets tanked in the US market. Even more wimpy is how they propped up the US dollar over Christmas holiday with foreign banks closed they tanked the Euro. Japan crashed because the policy was to maintain a strong Yen. We are repeating all the same mistakes. The US should bring the dollar down, but Bush and the red neck Texans are in charge. US banks are crooks. M.